Monthly Archives: September 2014

This Is What I Know – Weeks Four And Five

The Wedding Edition

The Prelude

I was correct in predicting a quarterback, with a surprising 0-2 start, to throw for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns!  I thought that quarterback would be Drew Brees and not Andrew Luck, making me 0-2 with my Slam Dunk picks this year.  Unfortunately, this wedding begins with the pianist playing “Another One Bites The Dust” by Queen.

Opening Prayer

I will make this prayer quick.  Everyone coming to my wedding on Saturday please be safe.  I pray for a safe flight to San Francisco and back, for Chelsey and myself.  I will take this time to reflect on my 11-5 record, in NFL picks, last week and pray that the rapid fire technique I used will continue to improve my selections.

The Passage

NFL picks for Week Four:  (Overall Record:  25-23)

Redskins over Giants

Bears over Packers

Texans over Bills

Colts over Titans

Ravens over Panthers

Lions over Jets

Steelers over Buccaneers – Lock of the Week

Dolphins over Raiders

Chargers over Jaguars

Falcons over Vikings

49ers over Eagles

Saints over Cowboys

Patriots over Chiefs

The Vows

Showtime:  (Overall Record – 12-3)

When you show up to a wedding, the vows are unknown.  Will the couple take the traditional route or will they write their own vows to each other?  A lot is unsure about Week Four, also:  bye weeks begin, waivers have not processed for our league, and lineups have not been set.  Vows, however, last a lifetime.  The words spoken are from the heart, a solemn promise, a personal commitment from this day until the end of days.  If you look at that 12-3 record, you will see my promise and commitment to Showtime 3.0.  I must admit that I have cold feet about these next ten picks, but here they are because THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

C.W. vs. Joe (Groom vs. Groomsman)

I am going to pick myself.  This weekend is about me (and my soon to be wife)!  If Joe was a stand-up guy, a real Groomsman, he would simply bench his players and let me fly to San Francisco comfortably with a 2-2 record.  Since he is not, and I would not want that anyway, this is my road to victory.

  • We both have our Defense on a bye this week (Who wins the waiver wire?)
  • Joe also has Marshawn Lynch on a bye this week
  • I have better match ups in Week Four, looking at our current lineups
  • Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, and Lamar Miller should be better than Rashad Jennings, Chris Ivory, and Shonn Greene
  • Joe has the advantage at Wide Receiver with Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown
  • None of my drafted Wide Receivers (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald) have scored a touchdown this season, but that changes this week

Mikey vs. Paul (Brotherly Love)

These two brothers are also hurt by teams on byes this week (Zac Stacy and Terrance West vs. Demaryius Thomas and Montee Ball).  Paul is 0-3 and missing his first two picks from this year’s draft.  I do not believe replacement level guys can fill Paul’s void this week.  Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery, and Le’Veon Bell should lead Mikey to victory.

Cribb vs. Alex (The In-laws)

This match up should be a fun one.  Both of these owners are perennial contenders and not afraid to speak their mind through some smack talk.  I have written this paragraph twice, picking each team once and I am back to the drawing board.  This match up is a toss-up and this is why:

  • Cribb has Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster, both questionable for Week Four, but I think at least one plays
  • Alex has five players on a bye week and two empty roster spots
  • Brandon Marshall vs. Jordy Nelson (Great); T.Y. Hilton vs. Marques Colston (Not So Great)
  • Alex wins the match up at quarterback (Luck over Cutler)
  • McCoy is due for a big game, helping Alex
  • I prefer Cribb’s Gore and Bradshaw over Alex’s Ridley and Cruz

I will take Alex because of Luck and McCoy.  I also expect Colston or Cruz to have a bigger game this week, than usual, due to good match ups.  I do not feel good about it, but then again most do not when in-laws are involved.  (Bob and Renee, you are the exception here)

Tov vs. Deavers (The Ring Bearer and The Flower Girl)

Tov is the ring bearer because like every ring bearer a fake ring makes him happy.  I have never heard anyone brag about second place as much as Tov and a split of the championship, with Joe, a couple of years ago took the cake.  I told you Joe was not a stand-up guy.  I must tell the story here…

  • Two years ago, Joe and Tov played for the championship and split the prize money before the Championship Week started. Yes, I am still bitter.

I was unsure what wedding related paring to go with here, but the story above and the fact that my wedding on Saturday will be without a flower girl and without Deavers makes it fitting.  Deavers do not take this the wrong way; I still love you.  I want to pick Tov, just because Deavers will be the only Showtime 3.0 member not at the wedding, but I cannot do it.  Why, you ask?  Jimmy Graham, against the Cowboys, will score two touchdowns and be the difference in this match up.

Lucas vs. Zach (The Flower Arrangements)

Both of these teams looked good on draft night, but have wilted in the early part of the season.  Lucas is in trouble this weekend, as Peyton Manning, Wes Welker, and Seattle’s Defense are all on byes.  Zach has had a rough start with Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy not playing to their potential.  I will pick Zach, but only because Lucas needs a lot of help from the waiver wire.  Without knowing what Lucas’ lineup looks like, I cannot pick him again this week.

You May Kiss The Bride!

The only sure thing at every wedding, allows the groom to kiss his bride and the two are announced Mr. and Mrs. Carroll in this instance.  This leads me to my Slam Dunk of the Week.  I mentioned it before; Jimmy Graham will score two touchdowns against the Cowboys.  I will up the ante and give him his best point total of the young season, trumping 19.90 in Showtime 3.0 scoring.

Jimmy Graham

The Reception (Week Five)

The wedding reception defines the unknown.  What is for dinner, will there be booze, who will drink too much, what music the DJ will play, and how long conversations at the bar with complete strangers will last?  There will be injuries this weekend and that could significantly alter these picks, but here goes nothing.

Packers over Vikings

Cowboys over Texans

Bears over Panthers

Titans over Browns

Eagles over Rams

Falcons over Giants

Saints over Buccaneers – Lock of the Week

Lions over Bills

Colts over Ravens

Steelers over Jaguars

Broncos over Cardinals

49ers over Chiefs

Chargers over Jets

Bengals over Patriots

Seahawks over Redskins

The Dance

C.W. vs. Cribb

We cannot agree on Biggie and Pac or Kenny Chesney and Jamie Johnson, so this match up will dance to the tune of “I Want It That Way” by the Backstreet Boys.  In week five, Cribb and I will both desperately need a win.  Looking at our current rosters, we only have one combined player on a bye.  I have some sneaky plays, including Roethlisberger against the Jaguars.  I am picking in the dark here, so I should pick myself right?  Me, but it is close.

Mikey vs. Tov

These two league mates can look sharp when they want to and they both like to party.  If I were the DJ of this match up (and let’s face it, for this post’s sake I am), I would play “Pretty Fly For A White Guy” by The Offspring.  To follow the party theme, these two teams should rack up the point in week five with good match ups.  The two match ups that stand out to me are Drew Brees against the Bucs and Calvin Johnson against the Bills, and Tov owns both of these players.  Give me Tov in Week Five.

Joe vs. Lucas

This match up will be “Fancy” by Iggy Azalea.  I took a beach trip with these two this summer and the two of them sang this song what seems like five-hundred times on that trip.  I expect a high scoring match up.  Peyton has a tough match up against Arizona, but two weeks to prepare (advantage Peyton).  Seattle, also owned by Lucas, plays Washington on Monday Night Football.  I think Lucas wins in Week Five and starts to make his move, as most of his key players have their bye week during Week Four.

Alex vs. Deavers

“Why Can’t We Be Friends” by War comes to mind when I think about this match up.  These two will talk enough trash before, during, and after this week, to break Twitter.  Simply, they hate to lose to each other.  In fact, I am sure that both have circled this week on their schedule.  Jimmy Graham plays against Tampa Bay!  The more I look at these match ups, Jimmy Graham should have been picked number one overall.  That said this league is too competitive for a team to start 5-0.  I can hear Alex laughing now when he wins this one.  Deavers will not be happy, as a close defeat to Alex is worst case scenario for a 4-0 squad.

*I just realized I have been very disrespectful to Deavers and his fantasy team in this post.  I am going for a mostly nonsense, fun post this week.  Do not take it personally.

Paul vs. Zach

Both needing a win, and both fairly disgruntled with fantasy football, these two will listen to the best of Eminem all weekend.  Not only do they both favor Slim Shady to most other rappers, but their depressed fantasy moods will need the hate Eminem displays in his music.  At the end of the day, “Finally” by CeCe Peniston will be playing over and over in the winner’s mind.  By my estimate, Zach is singing because Rodgers and Lacy should capitalize at home on Thursday night against the Vikings.  This fantasy match up may be over on Friday morning.

The Last Dance

The only thing left to do is slow dance, say goodbye to the real world, and honeymoon.  Chelsey and I are headed to Napa, California, just an hour away from our hated San Francisco 49ers.  The only thing left to do in this post is predict a Slam Dunk for Week Five and since we will be so close, I will focus on San Francisco.  Considering I have already picked the San Francisco football team to win, I am in a conundrum about what to say here.  Chelsey and I will be spreading our 49ers hate all over the city.  Unfortunately, the 49ers will beat the Chiefs, but our hatred will hit home, plate, as the Pirates beat the Giants in the NL Wildcard game.  Since the rest of this post was fun and full of nonsense, why not go away from the unknown that Week Five provides.

al-east-champs-726x400

And speaking of baseball, LET’S GO O’s!  Queue up “Seven Nation Army” by The White Stripes ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJ50i6MgkAM ), scream O’s every time you hear that portion of the National Anthem, cheer for the Birds this postseason, and I will see you all in two weeks!

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week Three

I was robbed in Week Two!  Darren Sproles was drafted in the Fifteenth Round of our Showtime 3.0 draft, while LeSean McCoy was drafted first overall.  By my count, one hundred and forty-six players were selected between the two Eagles’ running backs.  Why does this matter?  Because I made the right call, but I am now 0-1 with my Slam Dunk picks!  I thought both Eagles would outscore Trent Richardson.  I gambled in thinking Sproles would outscore McCoy, and he did.  0.70 points made my Slam Dunk pick from last week incorrect, as Ahmad Bradshaw outscored Darren Sproles 17.30-16.60.  Sproles and Bradshaw were both on the bench on their respective fantasy teams.  In fact, the top three running backs this past weekend had no fantasy relevance in Showtime 3.0 (Bradshaw, Knile Davis, and Sproles), except to ruin my pick.  I must say, if anyone out there read my post and listened to me you are welcome for those points, and God Bless You!

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More bad news, I am currently 14-18 with my NFL game picks.  What is my excuse, as you knew there would be one?  Reread the paragraph above, think about this past week of NFL news, and try to grasp the fact that the Saints are   0-2.  The 2014 NFL Season has started in bizarre fashion.  The Cowboys’ Defense has been good.  OK, enough!  Considering I am struggling with this portion of my posts, and I need to reduce their length, I will rapid fire here.

TB at ATL – Atlanta at home.

DAL at STL – How ‘bout them Cowboys!

SD at BUF  – Bills on the East Coast.

WAS at PHI – Eagles win, while booing DeSean Jackson.

HOU at NYG – Houston moves to 3-0.

MIN at NO –  New Orleans finally has a home game and they will take advantage.  They have to!

TEN at CIN – Bengals continue to roll.

BAL at CLE – Ravens win a close game.

GB at DET – Packers, but I’m not confident.

IND at JAX – Colts win a “must win”, after Houston becomes a 3-0 team.

OAK at NE – Lock of the Week!  Patriots.

SF at ARI – Cardinals, as Kaepernick struggles.

DEN at SEA – We rarely get to see Super Bowl rematches.  I am excited to watch this matchup, but the hype will be only hype.  Seattle is better than they were in February, the Twelfth Man will be amped up, and this game looks a lot like the “Big Game” we watched nearly eight months ago (without new commercials).  Seahawks!  How is this game not scheduled at night, by the way?

KC at MIA – Dolphins win with Charles injured.

PIT at CAR – Panthers win a boring Sunday Night matchup.

CHI at NYJ – Bears win late, as they struggle against the Jets Defense.

Slam Dunk

Drew Brees is due for a great week.  The Saints are due for a win.  Mark Ingram is out, with an injury.  Brees will throw for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Vikings.  Allow me to throw in a fun fact here, to back up my “bold thinking” for this pick.  Aaron Rodgers led all Quarterbacks in yardage in week two, with 346.  THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

Brees

Now that my NFL picks are over, let me focus on something I have been pretty good at this far.  I am 7-3 picking Showtime 3.0 matchups, and I have been upsetting Lucas with my reasoning regarding his team.  I’m sorry pal, but you may want to stop reading here if you do not want that to happen again.

C.W. vs. Alex (Projection – 76.97-79.35)

I will pick Alex in our matchup.  The fact that he is projected to beat me and Tom Brady is projected to outscore Andrew Luck is a concern for my team.  I am also concerned about Matt Forte’s matchup against the Jets and DeMarco Murray’s matchup against the Rams.  The good news for me is that I was able to trade Adrian Peterson, before he was placed on the exempt/commissioer’s permission list, for Rob Gronkowski and Kendall Wright.  As an owner of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, I will earn ten points every time they hook up for a touchdown.  If they do so, in a good matchup, this weekend I have a shot.  At the end of the day, I believe Andrew Luck, Jordy Nelson, and LeSean McCoy boost Alex to 2-1.

Mikey vs. Zach (Projection – 78.55-72.25)

I pick Mikey because I think Houston’s Defense, against the Giants, has a great day.  Zach has the advantage at Quarterback, Rodgers over Ryan.  Ryan also plays Thursday night, and Thursday games seem to be sloppy quite often.  Eddie Lacy has struggled and that continues against the Lions front seven.  Zach’s third best player is Julius Thomas, who will be shut down by the Seahawks.  Mikey, with Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery, and Le’Veon Bell, wins this matchup with Houston’s Defense leading his team in scoring.

Cribb vs. Lucas (Projection – 75.25-64.75)

Lucas, I have not been disrespectful to your team.  But since you think I have been, I thought I should try to build your confidence.  After a close look, I simply cannot this week.  Peyton Manning, Wes Welker, and Seattle’s Defense, playing against each other, will significantly hurt your chances this week.  When Peyton succeeds, your defense loses points and vice versa.  I believe Cribb will earn his first win on Sunday, as Arian Foster and Brandon Marshall lead their teams to wins.  Sorry Lucas, maybe I can coach you up next week.

Joe vs. Tov (Projection – 79.57-79.26)

I have to pick Joe in this matchup.  Tov acquired Adrian Peterson this week, as he has been bitten by the injury bug at the running back position and needed to gamble.  He is starting Jeremy Hill and Matt Asiata at the running back position because of his hardships at the position.  I still believe he has a fighting chance at 3-0, because I think Drew Brees has a big day and he still has Calvin Johnson.  I like Joe best in this matchup, because of Knile Davis in his Flex Position.  Davis’ productivity will continue with Charles out, and Lynch and Jennings gives him a clear advantage at running back this week.  Don’t forget Joe also owns Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown.

Deavers vs. Paul (Projection – 77.07-76.17)

2-0 vs. 0-2, for that fact alone I will pick Deavers.  He has a solid team, with Stafford and Graham leading the charge.  Running backs concern me on both teams (Donald Brown and Pierre Thomas vs. Montee Ball and Shane Vereen).  Paul has Jordan Cameron and Roddy White, both questionable, and White plays on Thursday Night which is not ideal for a banged up player.  The clear advantage here is Jimmy Graham, especially with the day I believe Brees and the Saints will have on Sunday.

The twenty-seventh is right around the corner and football will be taking a back seat for a while, as I will be traveling the Sundays of Week Four and Five.  I am going to try to work on my Week Four post this weekend, and Week Five early next week.  I hope all of my readers enjoy, and good luck to all of my league mates, take it easy on me while I am gone!

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week Two

Or should I say, “This Is What I Do Not Know”?  Week One was unkind to me!  I went 7-9 with my predictions and 1-4 in, money league, fantasy matchups.  In fact, I found myself singing, “Mama Said There’ll Be Days Like This”, over and over while watching my Cowboys lose on Sunday.  In our Showtime League, I lost nine points from three fumbles.  But enough of the bad news, this is what I know:

  • It was only week one, so relax, regroup, and be better next time.
  • I went 4-1 with my Showtime picks. I thought benching Gronk would cost Tov the matchup.  Gronk scored as I predicted but Tov made the right move, as Ertz outscored the Patriot Tight End and Tov beat Paul in their matchup.
  • I will make my Slam Dunk of the Week early this week, and by doing so ensure I get one correct this year. This one is important, so I’m dropping out of the bullets section and sharing in a paragraph below.

Chelsey-CW

I am getting married on September 27, 2014.  As much as I enjoy working on these posts, I am struggling to find time with work, wedding planning, and also moving out of my apartment before the Big Day comes.  My soon to be wife and I will be honeymooning in Napa, CA, Wine Country, the week following the wedding.  There are three notes I would like to make here.  One, time will not allow for me to post while on my honeymoon.  Two, I plan to post about that week before I leave.  And three, if you thought my picks were bad in Week One, you do not want me posting from Wine Country.  Morale of the story, I need to shorten these posts.  Here we go:

Steelers vs. Ravens

There are too many distractions in Baltimore, with the sickening Ray Rice footage, and my Orioles playing so well across the parking lot.  Big Ben and Antonio Brown continue to roll.

The Steelers win, severely damaging my Ravens win the AFC North prediction.

Cowboys vs. Titans

The Cowboy’s defense did not look awful against San Francisco.  They also basically played a road game last weekend, with all of the 49ers’ fans at AT&T Stadium.  Romo will not throw three interceptions.  Dez will not be dehydrated.  My concerns are:

  • Jake Locker has enough mobility to avoid the Cowboy’s pass rush.
  • The Titans have multiple weapons to utilize.
  • Tennessee’s defense will slow down DeMarco Murray

The Cowboys find a way to win this game, but I don’t feel good about picking them.

Dolphins vs. Bills

Both of these teams surprised me last weekend, beating the Patriots and the Bears respectively.  Things I know include:

  • The Dolphins forced Tom Brady to lose two fumbles.
  • The Bills allowed Matt Forte to gain 169 total yards.

Give me the Bills at home, because I think Spiller and Jackson will play a big role and Manuel’s mobility helps against Miami’s pass rush.

Jaguars vs. Redskins

Both of these teams also shocked me last weekend.  I wish I would have said Allen Hurns will have over one hundred yards and two touchdowns.  I expect both of these teams to surprise me again this weekend, but the Redskins will not have two turnovers inside the ten yard line.

Redskins

Cardinals vs. Giants

The Cardinals are a better team.  My only concern is a slow start, for them, on the East Coast.  I haven’t caught up on my sleep, this week, and I fell asleep in the second quarter of their Monday Night game.  I am sure they are tired.  I am very excited to have Arizona’s defense in this game.

Cardinals win, fairly easily.

Patriots vs. Vikings

I cannot see the Patriots starting the season 0-2, but they will.  I see Peterson having a big day on Sunday.  TCF Bank Field opens its doors for the first time.

Vikings win, by a Blair Walsh field goal late.

Saints vs. Browns

I think Johnny Manziel earns the Browns first win.  He is not starting this week.  The Saints should be angry and handle business.

Saints

Falcons vs. Bengals

These teams both found themselves in close games with big individual performances last week.  I can envision this game being another close, shootout type, game.  In a shootout, give me the team with the most weapons on offense.

The Falcons move to 2-0.

Lions vs. Panthers

“My main focus is on the Detriot Lions.  I got my hands full trying to stay protected from Donkey Kong Suh and my former Auburn teammate, Nick Fairley,” was Cam Newton’s answer multiple times when talking to the media on Wednesday.  Boy, I hope so!  Cam Newton is arrogant, to put it nicely, and the Lions are really good.  I hope the Lions play with a purpose this Sunday.

I expect the Lions to win and I expect to see Cam Newton pouting with a towel over his head.

Cam

Rams vs. Buccaneers

The Rams cannot be feeling well after last week’s thumping.  I also do not feel very well about them.

Bucs

Seahawks vs. Chargers

The Seahawks do not play as well on the road and a lot of people are picking the Chargers to contend with the Broncos in the AFC West.  San Diego will have to throw the ball a lot to do so.  I simply do not see the Chargers beating the Legion of Boom.

Seahawks

Texans vs. Raiders

The Texans are 2-0 and the Patriots are 0-2?  I think so because of JJ Watt!  Watt was a beast against Robert Griffin the Third last week and the Raiders did not light up the stat sheet against the Jets.  Oakland’s leaders on offense were McFadden with 15 rushing yards and Streater with 46 receiving yards.  Houston’s defense is the strength in this game.

Texans

Jets vs. Packers

The Jets have a good defense (see the Raider’s stats above).  New York’s defense is not as good as Seattle’s defense.  The Packers faced a big challenge last week and will be prepared, with extra rest.  Geno should also have a pretty good game here, but he will not be able to match the Packer’s offense.

Green Bay

Chiefs vs. Broncos

Denver is my lock of the week.  The Chiefs are not what they were a year ago.  Peyton and company will roll into Seattle, to meet the 3-0 Seahawks, at 3-0.

Broncos

Bears vs. 49ers

If DeMarco Murray can put up 118 rushing yards on the 49ers defense, so can Matt Forte.  And with any luck, the Bears will not throw the ball once they get to the goal line, like the Cowboys did a week ago.  Yes, I am still bitter.  Forte has a huge day, but the Bears fall short at Levi’s Stadium.

Niners win a close one.

Eagles vs. Colts

I like what I saw from the Colts last week.  Peyton was simply too much in the first half.  I like Luck at home in what should be a good game with lots of offensive yardage.

Colts

Showtime Matchups

C.W. vs. Paul (Projection:  82.11-75.35)

  • Peterson, Forte, and Murray outscore Ball, Moreno, and Vereen
  • If Vereen scores it will be via the air, meaning Brady also scores
  • Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne had 22 total targets in Week One

I beat Paul and the projection is pretty accurate.

Mikey vs. Deavers (Projection:  76.20-73.91)

  • Matt Ryan at Cincinnati should play better than Stafford at Carolina
  • I like Bell and Stacy better than Pierre Thomas and, a banged up, Ellington
  • Otherwise, these teams are similar this week

I’ll take Mikey to improve to 2-0.

Cribb vs. Joe (Projection:  81.78-74.11)

  • Cribb’s team largely underperformed last week, but so did Tony Romo and Dez Bryant
  • Charles, Foster, and Gore should be better than Lynch, Jennings, and Greene
  • All other positions seem pretty even in this matchup

Cribb wins a close one this week.

Tov vs. Zach (Projection:  74.44-70.65)

  • Tov is apparently a fantasy genius:

Ertz over Gronk last week paid off.

Gronk is in his lineup this week (take note fantasy players).

He was voted worst team, but starts 1-0, in a league where “worst team” is always a contender.

Brandin Cooks, Sixth Round, had 7 catches for 77 yards and a Touchdown.

777, see #4, Jackpot right?  Wrong, he rushed for 18 yards also.  One week will not change my opinion about selecting Brandin Cooks in the Sixth Round, but I have been wrong before.

  • Brees vs. Rodgers and Gronk vs. Julius Thomas are even
  • Calvin Johnnson and Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace is not even

Tov wins by more than four.

Alex vs. Lucas (Projection:  79.57-77.46)

  • Luck outscored Manning, in fantasy, last week on Sunday Night Football and will again
  • Alex will benefit by having Emmanuel Sanders cushioning Manning’s points
  • McCoy, Bernard, and Nelson outscores Morris, Spiller, and Cobb

Alex should win pretty comfortably.

Ok, I’ll give you a real Slam Dunk, for Week 2.

Monday Night Football, Eagles at Colts, becomes a heavy passing game and Darren Sproles leaves that game as the running back with the most fantasy points, in that game.

Good luck everyone and remember these posts will most likely be getting shorter in the next few weeks.

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week One

The wait is over, so I will jump right in.  Here is a preview of each game Week One has to offer.

Packers @ Seahawks

You remember last year’s Thursday Night opener!  Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 76 total points were scored (after a lengthy lightning day).  Seattle’s forecast for Thursday shows a high of seventy-five, zero chance of rain, and an over/under of forty-seven and a half.  I am taking the under, and I believe the first team that scores twenty points wins.

From a fantasy perspective, I believe that Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy are the biggest factors in this game.  Both of these bruising running backs should tally around 100 yards, on 20+ carries.  Aaron Rodgers will be somewhat limited and Russell Wilson will have his normal 270 passing yards to multiple receivers.  You have to start everyone of fantasy relevance in this game, but most will be disappointing.

richard

Give me the Seahawks 20-17, with a defensive/special team highlight being the difference.

Saints @ Falcons

You will not be surprised when I say this one should be a shootout.  There are weapons, young and old, all over the field in this game.  Drew Brees and Matt Ryan are the beneficiaries, as they will spread the ball around to their respective weapons.  I think both quarterbacks throw for more than 300 yards, with multiple touchdowns.  Again, you have to start your offensive fantasy options in this game.  Graham will score a touchdown, several guys will pop, and others will treat you better in Week Two.  There are simply too many weapons on these teams, when healthy, not to be a little disappointed several games per year, as a fantasy owner.  I am interested to see how Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram progress, in the Saints offense, now that Sproles is in Philadelphia.

The Falcons will be much better this year, if they can stay healthy.  They will fall just short in Week One; however, as the Saints defense will be just good enough.  Saints win, 38-30.

Vikings @ Rams

The first two games I have previewed will be a story of X’s and O’s.  In this game, fantasy owners will watch their P’s and Q’s:  Peterson, Patterson, and Quinn.  Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and the Rams Defense, led by Robert Quinn, will be the key matchups here.  I am very interested to see how Norv Turner’s offense will work in Minnesota.

This matchup will be close throughout and both of these teams need to start strong, to have any chance in their divisions.  The Rams, led by their defense and Zac Stacy, win by a field goal on Sunday.

Browns @ Steelers

The Browns offense is not good, but their defense is stout.  When these teams meet on Sunday, I expect an ugly, competitive AFC North style game.  Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are the only players I’m comfortable with in this matchup.  I will say that Miles Austin does something in this game, to make him a hot waiver commodity for Week Two.

Zero, non-quarterback, players record over 100 yards in this game, add five total turnovers, and give me the Steelers, at home, 17-13.

Jaguars @ Eagles

The Eagles win this game, as they are my lock of the week.  I will be honest; I don’t know anything about the Jaguars this year.  Bortles was drafted, Gerhart was added, Jones-Drew escaped, and this team simply should not be very good. 

Foles, McCoy, Maclin, Cooper, and the Eagles Defense are all valuable this weekend.  Darren Sproles, like Austin, will be a waiver wire guy early next week.  And, this game is over by halftime.

Raiders @ Jets

These write-ups are getting sad; even though, I think this game will be pretty close in the fourth quarter.  I can envision a welcoming party for the Jets new comers.  Chris Johnson should get a good start toward another 1,000 yard rushing season, Eric Decker will pull in a touchdown, and Michael Vick will see some Wildcat action.  Speaking of new comers, Jones-Drew should also have a good day in this game.  I am using the Jets Defense this week, against a rookie quarterback, expecting multiple turnovers.

I’ll take the Jets 24-17.

Bengals @ Ravens

The second AFC North game on this week’s slate will provide more offense than the Browns and Steelers.  Start the upper round players you drafted in this game.  Giovani Bernard will break out in this game and AJ Green will prove to be dominant again this season.  Baltimore’s defense will keep them in the game and big play ability, at the wide receiver position, will push Baltimore to their first win of the season.

Ravens – 28-24

Bills @ Bears

You should know by now how I feel about Matt Forte.  Not to mention, I acquired him in a trade while working on this post.  I will try to refrain from going on and on regarding Matt Forte.  Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery will be enough for the Bears to beat the Bills.  Watch out for CJ Spiller, however.  I expect him to have a good game in this one.  The Bear’s defense is not very good and the Bills have enough talent to stay in the game beyond halftime.

Bears – 30-17

Redskins @ Texans

I have talked about the Redskins’ weapons previously, and predicted them to win the NFC East, but they will have a challenge in Houston on Sunday.  The first team to see Watt and Clowney could cause a circus for RGIII and the Redskins.  (Nothing against circus clowns!)  Under pressure, a lot, the Redskins will rely heavily on Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed.  They will also try to get DeSean Jackson in a groove, but week two against the Jaguars, in Washington, should be a better day for him.

Houston’s defense keeps them in the game, but the Redskins pull away in the fourth quarter, 24-14.

Titans @ Chiefs

Starting an offensive player, not named Charles, in this game is probably a mistake. 

Chiefs – 17-7

Patriots @ Dolphins

I’m excited to see Tom Brady and Gronkowski work together, again.  I will also be interested to see what happens in the Patriots backfield.  Brady will spread the ball around, Gronkowski will score a touchdown, and the Patriots will be too much for the Dolphins.

New England – 28-17

Panthers @ Buccaneers

I may have been too harsh on Tampa Bay in my previous posts.  Lovie Smith, Josh McCown, Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Evans, paired with a decent defense give this team a lot to be excited about.  I expect the Panthers to struggle this year and would only trust Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, and their defense as fantasy options. 

I am going with the home team here.  Give me the Bucs in a bizarre football game.

49ers @ Cowboys

Let me start with the defenses in this matchup.  Both teams, on that side of the ball, are plagued with injuries and suspensions.  One of these teams is reaching forty points.  Start everyone you can on offense.

They have not broken my heart yet this season, so I will pick the Dallas Cowboys.  You heard me, 41-34!  Get your popcorn ready.

Slam Dunk

This week’s slam dunk is based on the Cowboy’s defense being really bad and Colin Kaepernick not being very good himself.  If you have Colin Kaepernick, play him and then trade him, as Week One will be his highest fantasy point total of the year.  THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

1-14-13-Colin-Kaepernick_full_600

Colts @ Broncos

Wes Welker is out, suspended.  I expect Emmanuel Sanders to take a big role in this high voltage offense, in Welker’s absence.  Start all of your Broncos, as Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas will also see more action to fill that void.  As for the Colts, I think this year is the year Andrew Luck takes the next step and I believe Trent Richardson will rebound, but not necessarily this weekend.

Remember how I started this post?  Peyton at home, throwing seven touchdowns, against a Super Bowl contender will not happen again.  Put him down for four touchdowns and give Ball one rushing, as well.  Broncos win fairly easily, 35-20.

Giants @ Lions

I don’t expect much from the Giants this season, or in this game.  The Lions offensive players will be worth their draft price in this game, I expect.  I am intrigued to see how Bush and Bell split the workload in the Lions backfield.  There will be some interesting things that stand out in this game, but I think the Lions are the better team.

The Lions win this matchup pretty comfortably.

Chargers @ Cardinals

If you can stay awake on the East Coast, this game will be fun to watch.  Both offenses can be explosive, the Cardinals have playmakers on their defense, and the late game commentary on Monday Night Football, in Week One, is worth the extra cup of coffee on Tuesday.  Don’t forget, there will be plenty of fantasy matchups determined as the clock strikes two o’clock Tuesday morning.  I think all offensive players you drafted are very usable here.  I am relying on Antonio Gates, instead of Ladarius Green, as I am unsure how that split is going to work at this point. 

Hey, you!  The guy playing against Carson Palmer, he is going to beat you.  Larry Fitzgerald will beat you, other guy laughing at the Carson Palmer sentence.  I can’t forget about you, poor guys facing Arizona’s defense or either kicker, because all of you will lose also. 

Oh yeah, Cardinals win by a field goal and that guy just slept through his first fantasy win of the season…

Showtime Picks

Le’Veon My Decker vs. Manning of Steel 2.0 (C.W. vs. Lucas)

Lucas always beats me and is projected to beat me 79.70 to 78.30.  I will pick Lucas in week one for the following reasons:

  • I have Peterson against the Rams, so I am not expecting his best game of the season.
  • I am relying on three guys in that late Monday Night game (Fitzgerald, Gates, and Novak).
  • Lucas has a clear advantage at Quarterback and Defense (Peyton v. Brady and Seahawks v. Jets)

Spaghetti Monsters vs. Putin$$$OnUkraineium (Mikey vs. Cribb)

Cribb is projected to win this matchup 85.17 to 78.24, but I view this matchup much closer than that.  I will take the underdog and side with Mikey based on these beliefs:

  • Matt Ryan vs. Nick Foles is a wash.
  • Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffery vs. Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin slightly favor Jones/Jeffery (Mikey).
  • Le’Veon Bell and Zac Stacy vs. Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster should favor Charles/Foster (Cribb).
  • Cribb is playing the Saints defense against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. A touchdown pass from Ryan to Jones would be a dagger in what I view as a close matchup.

Dezzie Does Dallas vs. RockOutWithUrHawkOut (Joe vs. Alex)

Joe is projected to win 81.10 to 79.22.  I am taking Joe by a larger margin than the projections show and this is why:

  • Joe has Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. I see them hooking up for at least one touchdown in their game.
  • Jordan Reed, who I discussed earlier in this post.
  • Lynch, who I expect to play well against the Packers.
  • Alex has Andrew Luck, who will likely be playing from behind and under pressure.
  • Jordy Nelson, who will be going up against Sherman and the Seattle Defense.
  • LeSean McCoy could have a huge game, Alex could win. Otherwise, I just do not see it happening.

Shabbat Delhomme vs. The Wild Puff Cat’s (Tov vs. Paul)

Just like in a wrestling match, Paul is projected to beat Tov fairly easily, 81.68 to 74.40.  If Tov continues to bench Gronkowski, I will go with Paul in this matchup.  If Gronkowski plays for Tov, Tov wins and this is why:

  • He has Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and potentially Gronk.
  • I can see Gronk scoring two touchdowns.
  • Two touchdowns from Gronk will match Demaryius Thomas’ and Montee Ball’s big games.
  • Paul has Robert Griffin the Third and Pierre Garcon. If they do not play well, against Watt and Clowney, Tov takes this matchup.

Beats By Ray vs. Dirty Sanchez 2.0 (Deavers vs. Zach)

This projection is as close as they come, at 73.31 to 73.29.  I quickly picked Deavers after glancing at this matchup, and this is why:

  • Zach has Aaron Rodgers and he will struggle at Seattle.
  • Deavers has Matt Stafford and he will play well, at home, against the Giants.
  • Obviously, all of the other positions are very closely compared in this matchup.

Fantasy football is back to stay, at least for sixteen weeks.  Sit back and enjoy your Sundays filled with great food, cheap beer, ups, downs, victory, and heartbreak.  Enjoy Week One and I will see you back here for my look into Week Two.

*All fantasy projections are subject to change. And, I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Lines via Las Vegas Hilton

Green Bay @ Seattle (-5.5)

New Orleans (-3) @ Atlanta

Minnesota @ St. Louis (-3.5)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia (10.5)

Oakland @ N.Y. Jets (-5.5)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-2)

Buffalo @ Chicago (-7)*

Washington @ Houston (-3)

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-3.5)

New England (-5) @ Miami

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-2)

San Francisco (-5) @ Dallas

Indianapolis @ Denver (-7.5)

N.Y. Giants @ Detroit (-6)

San Diego @ Arizona (-3)

Season Record: 0-0-0

*Lock of the Week

 

2014 NFL Season Predictions

NFC

 East

  1. Eagles (10-6)
  2. Redskins (7-9)
  3. Cowboys (6-10)
  4. Giants (4-12)

West

  1. Seahawks (12-4)
  2. 49ers (9-7)
  3. Rams (7-9)
  4. Cardinals (5-11)

North

  1. Packers (12-4)
  2. Bears (10-6)
  3. Lions (7-9)
  4. Vikings (6-10)

South

  1. Saints (12-4)
  2. Tampa Bay (9-7)
  3. Falcons (7-9)
  4. Panthers (7-9)

AFC

 East

  1. Patriots (13-3)
  2. Jets (7-9)
  3. Dolphins (6-10)
  4. Bills (4-12)

West

  1. Broncos (13-3)
  2. Chargers (10-6)
  3. Chiefs (6-10)
  4. Raiders (5-11)

North

  1. Benagls (9-7)
  2. Ravens (8-8)
  3. Steelers (8-8)
  4. Browns (6-10)

South

  1. Colts (10-6)
  2. Texans (9-7)
  3. Titans (6-10)
  4. Jaguars (6-10)

Regular Season Awards:

MVP- Aaron Rodgers

OPOY- Peyton Manning

DPOY- J.J. Watt

OROY- Carolos Hyde

DROY- Aaron Donald

COY- Mike McCoy

Playoffs:

NFC

  1. Saints
  2. Packers
  3. Seahawks
  4. Eagles
  5. Bears
  6. Buccaneers

 

AFC

  1. Broncos
  2. Patriots
  3. Bengals
  4. Colts
  5. Chargers
  6. Texans

 

1st Round (Winners Bolded)

Buccaneers @ Seahawks

Bears @ Eagles

Texans @ Bengals

Chargers @ Colts

 

2nd Round

Bears @ Saints

Seahawks @ Packers

Chargers @ Broncos

Bengals @ Patriots

 

Championship Games:

Seahawks @ Saints

Chargers @ Patriots

 

Super Bowl:

Saints 30 Patriots 27

Super Bowl MVP: Drew Brees