Monthly Archives: October 2014

This Is What I Know – Week Nine

I am in an extremely bad mood; you have been warned!

The inevitable occurred just before midnight on Monday, and I’m shocked it took so long.  I almost made it through eight weeks of the NFL season without throwing my plush, Dallas Cowboys, football across the living room.  Nothing is more frustrating than watching your team lose to their biggest rival in overtime AND losing to your Fantasy Football nemesis by 1.44 points because of that outcome.  I have never played tackle football, so I could be wrong, but the two instances below blow my mind (considering you have the NFL’s leading rusher on your team):

  • Your franchise quarterback is in the locker room, injured. You are losing 10-7.  An offensive drive begins on your forty-three yard line.  The league’s leading rusher gets your team to the opposing team’s three yard line in two plays, TWO PLAYS.  The back-up quarterback is allowed to throw the football the following two plays and your team kicks a field goal.
  • Your over-achieving defense does just enough to get you a possession in Overtime, holding the opposing team to a field goal. The league’s leading rusher gains eight yards on first down.  The following three plays are passing plays delivered by your obviously uncomfortable, injured franchise quarterback.  If you did not watch the game, those three passes did not result in a first down.

I do not usually take information from websites while creating these posts, but ESPN’s NFL Power Rankings summed up my frustration much quicker than I just did.

“DeMarco Murray gained an incredible 5.2 yards before contact on his average rush Monday night. Somehow, with Tony Romo injured in an overtime loss, Murray had a season-low 19 rushes.”

I woke up Monday morning confident the Cowboys would take a 1.5 game lead in the NFC East, hoping I would squeak out a win against Lucas, and rise from fourth in the Showtime 3.0 standings.  I went to bed in eighth place in Showtime 3.0 and with Colt McCoy on my television.  Where is that damn plush football?

I warned you, and quite frankly this post may make my mood worse.  May make my mood, say that three times fast! Think of happy things: puppies, my beautiful wife, rainbows, pumpkin beers, sunny days, money, boobies, and good enough I’m ready for Week Nine.  I think Chelsey only reads these posts when I ask her to read them.  Honey, I was referring to Blue-Footed Boobies, DUH!  Gentlemen of 3.0, good luck; I guess…

Blue-Footed-Boobie

Showtime 3.0 (22-18 Overall)

C.W. vs. Alex – I desperately need a win and this battle of friends will be settled on Monday Night Football.  The plush football will be close by!  Both Alex and I are missing key contributors, Matt Forte vs. Jordy Nelson, due to these players being on their bye week.  Replacing those voids will be vital for this week’s result.  Those replacements are Reggie Wayne at Flex vs. Michael Floyd and I would consider those players question marks, at best.  Six total players will be squaring off on Monday Night (Randle and Wayne vs. Luck, Allen, Vinatieri, and D’Qwell Jackson).  I believe I will need at least a fifteen point lead on Monday morning to withstand the plethora of points Alex will gain on Monday Night.  To do so, I need big performances from Brady, Gronkowski, and Murray.  I don’t feel good about this week, so I will side with Alex.  Note:  Reggie Wayne is questionable and may not be in my starting lineup on Sunday.

Mikey vs. Zach – Is it possible for a team to earn their first win with Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson on their respective bye week?  Sure, why not!  The feat seems unlikely, so I expect it to happen.  Mikey and Zach have had nearly the same amount of bad luck this season, and Mikey is missing Alshon Jeffery, Joique Bell, and Matt Ryan.  From here on out, when I say a player is missing just assume they are on their bye week.  Two things stand out for this matchup.  Desean Jackson is under-projected with only 3.93 points, which benefits Mikey.  The other interesting tidbit here is that Philadelphia plays Houston this week and Mikey and Zach own their defenses.  I expect the Eagles to win on the field, so I will side with Zach off of the field.

Cribb vs. Deavers – Let’s point out the “missing” players and get that out of the way.  (Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall vs. Matt Stafford)  The replacements at the quarterback position are Nick Foles vs. Ryan Tannehill.  I like Nick Foles best, between these two.  I also like that Cribb picked up Ben Roethlisberger this week, just because he knew Deavers needed a quarterback.  Like last week’s vetoed trade story, Cribb took to Twitter to explain himself.  The rest of this matchup is pretty interesting, but Foster and Charles are getting hot.  Cribb owns both.  Those guys paired with Ahmad Bradshaw are simply better than Ellington, Ingram, and Edelman in my opinion.  I’ll take Cribb.

Joe vs. Lucas –  Joe has no one of relevance on their bye, while Lucas is “missing” Randall Cobb, Boobie Dixon, Steven Jackson, and Detroit’s Defense.  Why would I mention Boobie and Jackson, you ask?  They both started for Lucas last weekend when he defeated me.  Joe is projected to win this matchup by more than fifteen points.  I am not sure I have seen that big of a spread this season.  I like Bryant and Brown better than Maclin and James Jones.  I like Lynch and Tate more than Stewart and Richardson.  Both of those likes favor Joe, so I will pick him to win.  Lucas cannot be as happy without Boobie(s), especially if you read my intro.  Note:  If I were Joe, I would be extremely scared of Peyton Manning, Jeremy Maclin, and Seattle’s Defense.

Tov vs. Paul – Tov is “missing” Eddie Lacy, Sammy Watkins, and Julio Jones, while Paul is “missing” Golden Tate and Roddy White, advantage Paul.  That sentence may preview this entire matchup because I hate Tov’s team this week, with the exception of Drew Brees.  Looking at the other side, I only like Philip Rivers, Demaryius Thomas, and JJ Watt for Paul.  I will side Paul, on the right side of your screen.

Paul v Tov

NFL Picks (73-47-1 Overall)

Saints over Panthers

Cowboys over Cardinals (RUN THE FOOTBALL!)

Browns over Bucs

Eagles over Texans

Chiefs over Jets

Bengals over Jaguars

Chargers over Dolphins

Vikings over Redskins

49ers over Rams

Patriots over Broncos

Seahawks over Raiders

Ravens over Steelers

Colts over Giants

Colt McCoy has outperformed my Slam Dunk predictions in a game and a half.  To honor Colt, I will make my Slam Dunk prediction from the state of Texas.  JJ Watt will outscore all of Tov’s position players this week (Cooks, Allen, Gray, Taliaferro, Ertz, and Fitzgerald).  THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week Eight

Where does the time go?  We wait more than eight months each year for draft night and the start of the new fantasy football season.  Seven short weeks later, we are scrambling for playoff positions and searching for that perfect trade to give our team an advantage.  Trades have been the story this week!  One (vetoed) trade went to Twitter, with Cribb asking for a not so random “Fantasy Football Steroid Test”.  The only details I will share from this proposed, accepted, and vetoed trade was that most, not involved, viewed it as unfair and that “HEAVEN Message…” (@id375434) decided to favorite our tweets.  Now, none of us know Ron, the person behind this Twitter handle, but I wanted to give him a shout out in this week’s post.  It appears that his Twitter mission is to favorite random tweets so people will read his Heaven Message.  Since I have already touched on time passing quickly, I decided not to read the passage, but I do know that there is a clear moral behind why this happened.  Guys and gals, make fair trades because HEAVEN Message… is watching!

Capture

Six weeks until six of us are competing in this year’s playoffs, and four of us begin that eight month wait.  That’s right boys, we are nearing crunch time.  I went 1-4 last week, resulting in an overall record of 21-14 in Showtime 3.0 predictions.  Naturally, I blame Chelsey for being off work last Wednesday night.  Wednesday Night Is Post Night!  Let’s do this!  And as always, gentlemen of Showtime 3.0, Good Luck!

C.W. vs. Lucas – Before I preview this matchup, I would like to wish Lucas a belated twenty-fifth birthday!  Everyone has heard of the tradition of folks getting spankings on their Birthday and Alex provided that hazing last weekend.  He beat Lucas by twenty –three points.  You see the problem here, for Lucas, is that Alex came up two spankings short, and it just so happens that I am projected to beat Lucas by two points this coming weekend.  Hopefully, this fact is not a coincidence.  Editing Note: After the fallout earlier in the NFL season, using spanking and beating in the same paragraph was probably a mistake on my part and I apologize.  Thank God I proofread these posts every Thursday morning, before I post.   All jokes aside, Lucas has been my biggest nemesis since he joined our league.  I can only remember beating him once and he always seems to be in my division.  My running backs are much better, but his wide receivers are far superior, as he traded for Jeremy Maclin this week.  Russell Wilson vs. Peyton Manning may be the difference, especially if Manning finds Welker in the end zone.  A matchup with Lucas is always circled on the preseason schedule and feared until the moment Tuesday morning arrives.  I am hoping Thursday Night Football against a division contender slows Peyton down a bit, and I win a close matchup.  This paragraph is entirely too long for me not to pick myself, on the back of Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray.

Mikey vs. Tov – I normally try to avoid trading with the owner I am facing that week, but that theory did not stop these two from a blockbuster deal, earlier this week.  Mikey received Julius Thomas, Cordarrelle Patterson, and DeAndre Hopkins for Julio Jones, Vernon Davis, and Keenan Allen.  My unwillingness to trade with an opponent is based on my belief that the trade will be the difference that week.  This particular trade is very even in my opinion, but I believe Thomas is the best player involved.  Tov clearly has the advantage at quarterback, Brees over Palmer, but because of the trade, especially Thomas, I side with Mikey this week.

Cribb vs. Alex – I will be focusing on these two teams the rest of the season, as Alex is a game ahead of me in the division and Cribb is right behind me in the standings.  I like Cribb this week and this is why:

  • Reggie Wayne is likely out, creating more opportunities for T.Y. Hilton
  • Cribb’s Hilton will narrow Alex’s point total for Luck
  • Cribb’s RB Matchups (Foster vs. Tennessee and Charles vs. St. Louis) (Preferred)
  • Alex’s RB Matchups (McCoy vs. Arizona and Bernard vs. Baltimore) (Not Preferred)
  • Cribb has a great matchup at Tight End (Witten vs. Washington)
  • Cribb also wins at Flex with Ahmad Bradshaw (See bullet point number two)

I think Alex has the better overall team but the matchups favor Cribb in Week Eight.

Joe vs. Paul – Joe wins for the following reasons:

  • Paul owns Philip Rivers, who I expect to struggle vs. Denver
  • Joe owns Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, who I expect to torch the Redskins
  • I like Lynch and Tate much better than McFadden and Martin, at the running back position
  • Joe’s only poor matchup is Antonio Brown vs. Indianapolis and he will have plenty of targets

Dezzie Does Dallas potentially takes a one game lead, in the division, with only five weeks to play.

Deavers vs. Zach – Deavers has a three game losing streak.  Zach has a seven game losing streak.  Something has to give!  Surrender is not in Zach’s vocabulary and he has been trying everything to earn his first victory.  He is third in his division in points and has completed twenty-eight transaction moves so far this season.  Quite frankly, his luck has been horrible.  I personally place the blame on his plan to hold and torture the new league trophy this season.  Maybe that trophy should be given to last place moving forward, as the sculpture must be cursed!  Looking at Deaver’s lineup, I see a lot of injuries.  Vincent Jackson, AJ Green, and Jimmy Graham are questionable.  Andre Ellington and Mark Ingram are probable.  The fact that Deaver’s team is not healthy and scored less than forty points last week has me leaning toward picking Zach.  Aaron Rodgers has a plus matchup against the Saints in a primetime game, and that is enough for me to pick Zach to move to 1-7.

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NFL Picks (63-42-1 Overall)

Broncos over Chargers

Lions over Falcons

Chiefs over Rams

Texans over Titans

Vikings over Bucs

Seahawks over Panthers

Ravens over Bengals

Dolphins over Jaguars

Patriots over Bears

Jets over Bills

Cardinals over Eagles

Browns over Raiders

Colts over Steelers

Packers over Saints

Cowboys over Redskins

I have only been correct on one Slam Dunk prediction this season.  In other words, if win stats were kept in the same fashion as in Major League Baseball, Colt McCoy and I have the same amount of wins thus far.  After Week Eight, I hope to pass him in the win category and I will use his game, against the Cowboys, to do so.  The Redskins are stout against the run, but come up short against the pass.  I expect the Cowboys to struggle a bit running the ball, take advantage of Washington’s weak secondary, and take command of this game early.  Therefore, DeMarco Murray will not touch the ball as many times and fall short of one hundred rushing yards for the first time this season.  THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week Seven

Russell Wilson played his worst, the Dallas Cowboys won, I beat Mikey and went 12-2-1 in my NFL picks; Week Six was kind to me.  This week has been a very busy one and Chelsey is not at work tonight, so this post will be brief.  After all, American Horror Story airs tonight and I had to take a few minutes to watch my Orioles get swept.  I have not watched an Orioles playoff victory from beginning to end since 1997.  And to be completely honest, I cannot be sure I completed that feat in 1997 because I was eleven years old.

This is a fantasy football post, so let me focus on Showtime 3.0 quickly.  The standings in our league make absolutely no sense!  You be the judge.

Lannister Men – These Lannister Men are not coming up short, so far.

Tyrion-Lannister-game-of-thrones-32312067-1397-2100

  • Joe (4-2) 494.60 points
  • Alex (4-2) 472.94 points
  • Lucas (3-3) 486.25 points
  • Cribb (3-3) 459.73 points
  • C.W. (3-3) 453.95 points

Stark Men – The Stark Men are slow out of the gate, but resilient. (R.I.P. Ned)

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  • Tov (4-2) 424.30 points
  • Deavers (4-2) 420.54 points
  • Paul (3-3) 400.43 points
  • Mikey (2-4) 467.19 points
  • Zach (0-6) 414.48 points

Bizarre Facts

  • Winter Is Coming and the Lannister Men currently have an advantage for playoff seeding.
  • Mikey’s point total competes with the Lannister Men, yet he is 2-4 overall, 1-3 in his division.
  • Second place and last place are separated by less than ten points, yet Zach is four games behind Tov.
  • My team has lost thirteen fumbles this season, equaling thirty-nine points stripped from me.
  • All of the Lannister Men will be 4-3 after Week Seven – SLAM DUNK!

My Slam Dunk prediction makes this next part quick and easy.

C.W. over Zach

Cribb over Joe

Lucas over Alex

You’re right, I barely looked at these matchups, but I have a feeling.

Mikey vs. Paul – Mikey wins because quite frankly he deserves to.  The fact that he has outscored the second highest point total, in his division, by 42.89 makes him worthy.  That statistic paired with the unlikelihood that JJ Watt scores his fourth touchdown of the season makes me fairly certain Mikey and Paul will both be 3-4 heading into Week Eight.

Tov vs. Deavers – This week’s projection separates these two by 0.26 points and the two teams are separated by only 3.76 so far this season.  You know what that means!  A blowout occurs in this matchup, it is just the nature of the beast.  I will side with logic, and the theme of this post, however and pick Deavers by 3.76 points.

If I am fully accurate in my predictions, this week, there will be six teams with four wins, the league leader will reside in the weaker division, and all five of the Lannister Men would be in the playoffs, if the fantasy regular season ended October 20.  That result at the end of Week Thirteen is probably impossible, with division games coming up, but would truly make this league a Freak Show.  Speaking of which, American Horror Story soon demands my attention.

set_american_horror_story_clown640

NFL Predictions (54-36-1)

Patriots over Jets

Ravens over Falcons

Redskins over Titans

Seahawks over Rams

Browns over Jaguars

Colts over Bengals

Bills over Vikings

Bears over Dolphins

Lions over Saints

Packers over Panthers

Chargers over Chiefs

Cardinals over Raiders

Cowboys over Giants

49ers over Broncos – Remember that this matchup is my Super Bowl preview.  The Broncos win in February, but not in Week Seven.

Texans over Steelers

This post quickly escalated into the TV edition of This Is What I Know.  On that topic, let me leave you with this quick plug.  Those of you that jumped off of the Walking Dead bandwagon, jump back on!  They are not at the prison anymore, so stop complaining!  The Walking Dead remains my favorite show on TV!

rick-no-sanctuary-season-5

Good luck in Week Seven!

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week Six

I am back to reality.  Today was my first day back to work, I live in a new town, I have an hour commute each way, and most of my clothes are still packed because, let’s face it, reality sucks.  The reality behind this post continues to trend downward, also.  I am now 0-5 with my Slam Dunk picks, lost my first lock of the week, I went 5-5 in Showtime picks while I was gone (17-8 overall), and I should be 1-4 in Showtime.  I want to take a second here to apologize, on behalf of the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive line, to Cribb.  Cribb and I squared off in what had to be the most gut wrenching matchup this season.  Percy Harvin had three touchdowns called back due to penalty, two of which happened on back to back plays.  Cribb lost by 5.93 points.  Had one of those touchdowns counted, I would have lost with the third highest score in the league for Week Five.  In a word, unreal!

100614-NFL-Percy-Harvin-TV-Pi.vresize.940.529.high.0

Who am I kidding?  I am extremely happy!  The Cowboys are winning, the Orioles are winning, Napa and San Francisco were awesome, and most importantly the ring on my left hand and my wife, Chelsey, could not be better for me.  This ring on my finger represents new beginnings and hopefully a new beginning improves my predictions on a weekly basis.  If not, I will switch the ring to a different finger and disappear like Bilbo Baggins in The Hobbit.

NFL Picks – (42-34 Overall)

**Since I lost a lock of the week, I will no longer make those picks.  I was treating those picks as an eliminator challenge.

Colts over Texans

Titans over Jaguars

Ravens over Buccaneers

Broncos over Jets

Lions over Vikings

Patriots over Bills

Bengals over Panthers

Steelers over Browns

Packers over Dolphins

Chargers over Raiders

Bears over Falcons

Seahawks over Cowboys

Cardinals over Redskins

Eagles over Giants

49ers over Rams

Showtime Picks – (17-8 Overall)

I said this league was too competitive for a team to have five wins and zero losses.  Two teams entered week five with four wins, but both were losers.  Hopefully I go 4-1 this week, and you will quickly see why I hope for a loss.

C.W. vs. Mikey

There is some history here!  Mikey and I always compete in close battles.  This matchup will be determined by the Colts at Texans and Bears at Falcons games.  We have eight combined players in those two games alone.  Chicago and Atlanta will probably partake in a sloppy shootout.  Mikey has the Ryan and Jones combination which I believe gives him an advantage.  I am going to predict that Forte outscores Jeffery, keeping me alive.  I acquired Russell Wilson earlier this evening and hope he provides a spark, as I have been struggling at the quarterback position all year.  I also believe San Diego’s Defense against the Raiders provides an advantage for me.  Le’Veon Bell was my keeper last season, but now resides as a Spaghetti Monster.  Bell could also play a big role in this friendly rivalry.  I have tried to talk myself up, and I hope Mikey has too many eggs in one basket, but I have very little confidence in my team currently.  I believe Mikey will win a close one, but I hope I am wrong.

Cribb vs. Lucas

I will take Lucas to win.  I expect the Cowboys to turn the ball over once or twice in Seattle and I like Peyton Manning and Wes Welker against the Jets (who seemed to quit last week against the Chargers).  Cribb will not go quietly, however.  I think Cutler and Marshall will get back on track this week, Foster has shown flashes of his old self, and Harvin may give the Cowboys Defense some trouble.  This matchup will also be close, but I cannot pick against Peyton, based on what I saw from the Broncos Offense and the Jets Defense last week.

Joe vs. Alex

I give Luck a slight edge over Romo this week.  Luck on a short week will not have his best game of the season, but facing a familiar foe helps him outscore Romo in Seattle.  I actually like Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, and Marshawn Lynch slightly better than Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, and Lesean McCoy this week.  The difference, for me, is that I like Bernard and Floyd better than Tate and Hillman.  Alex wins a third close fantasy showdown in Showtime 3.0.  Not to mention, his avatar of Richard Sherman giving the choke sign scares me regarding Romo and my Cowboys this weekend.

Lesean+Mccoy+Philadelphia+Eagles+v+New+York+Y5siCXu2fx-l

Tov vs. Zach

I want to be bold in this matchup, taking the upset simply because this league is too competitive for a team to be 0-6.  This matchup favors Tov in my eyes, but I think Zach may find a way to win.  Having said that, his clear advantage is Aaron Rodgers over Joe Flacco, but Miami’s Defense is good against opposing Quarterbacks.  Give me Tov, mostly because of Julius Thomas.

Deavers vs. Paul

Paul wins this matchup because Deavers’ core is absent.  AJ Green is still hurt and Jimmy Graham is on a bye, and also injured.  If Graham misses any significant time, Deavers may start to slide here, but I expect Graham to be back next Sunday and Deavers should be back to competing.  Philip Rivers, Demaryius Thomas, and Golden Tate (without Calvin Johnson) carry The Wild Puff Cat’s to victory.

Slam Dunk

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I have already touched on the lack of confidence I have in my team, my struggles at the Quarterback position, the trade for Russell Wilson, and the fact that the Cowboys are a surprise with four wins and one loss.  This year’s NFL has been whacky, like every other season.  Somehow, someway the Cowboys Defense will hold Russell Wilson to his smallest point total of this young season.  His worst point total this far is 11.94.  Again I hope I am wrong, but THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.