Monthly Archives: November 2014

This Is What I Know – Week Thirteen

The one weekly fact behind this post is that I know next to nothing.  And while I have enjoyed trying to make logical sense of the NFL and ShowTime 3.0, that feat is nearly impossible.  I wanted to fulfill my weekly post by sharing five factual notes, that I know to be one-hundred percent true.  This five fact format will be a transition into future posts, as I have devoted way too much time to this post this season.  That time paired with the Holidays, end of the regular season, and my likely elimination from the post season requires me to shorten my time spent on this post.

Fact One – This time of the year is known as the Holiday Season.  It begins with a Thanksgiving dinner, followed by decorating, shopping, and most of all family.  The key to all of those activities is the family aspect. In all religions, quality time with the family comes first during the holidays.  I consider the members of ShowTime 3.0 to be a family of ten, and I wish you all the best of luck.

Fact Two – During this special time of the year, we have the privilege of watching some of the best football of the season.  The Eagles and the Cowboys played for the first time on Thursday.  Hopefully the second games is more competitive.  The Seahawks and 49ers play again, after a defensive bout Thursday Night.  This Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Packers should be great television.  One is family, and number two is football.

Fact Three – ShowTime 3.0 begins a new season on Tuesday morning.  Alex, Joe, Deavers, Tov, and Paul have clinched a spot in that season.  Lucas appears to be the favorite to become the sixth, but Cribb and I have a bit of hope.

Fact Four – The average winning score last week was 91.51, heavily influenced by Tov’s eleven touchdowns and 118.30 points.  On the other hand, Lucas gained his one game lead for sixth place with only 69.99 points, third worst in the league last week.  You would never guess who was playing Tov…

Fact Five – Six teams, and a lot of fantasy players, have already completed their games this week. This fact gives us a more clear cut look at projections for the rest of the weekend. Right now, the projections suggest Alex will be our regular season champion and Tov or Deavers will receive the second bye. Due to my lack of scoring on Thursday, it seems the race for sixth is between Lucas and Cribb.

I had an epiphany last week and will no longer make ShowTime 3.0 picks. Monday Night defeats three out of the past four weeks made one fact clear to me. The Fantasy God’s are not on my side. After all, who am I to try to predict what may happen in a a volatile fantasy football league within the most volatile league of professional sports? The fact that I attempted to accurately predict those outcomes, for twelve weeks, was asinine. People get paid to do this and still make bad calls. I have a full time job, an hour commute (each way), and family time that means so much to us all. Cribb said it best, in regards to potentially being eliminated, on Thursday morning by saying, “I’m excited to enjoy football again though”.

I will take a loss for the three games I missed on Thursday, although I would have most likely picked the Lions, Cowboys, and Seahawks.

Colts
Texans
Bills
Ravens
Giants
Bengals
Rams
Saints
Vikings
Cardinals
Patriots
Broncos
Dolphins

Let me conclude this week’s post by apologizing to the Fantasy Football Gods, and promising to never step on their toes again (unless this extremely fun, competitive, depressing, confusing, Fantasy Life becomes my real job). I intentionally used Fantasy Life as a tribute to Matthew Berry’s book about stories he has encountered as a Fantasy Football player and analyst. If you have not read it, read it! (The English Language is almost as confusing as Fantasy Football.) THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

*I cannot be held accountable for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editing or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week Twelve

My fifteenth post comes to you from a depressed state of mind. Three out of the past four Monday nights, I have sat in front of my television and watched my playoff hopes become smaller and smaller. You remember my post after the Redskins beat the Cowboys and the unwillingness of the Cowboys to run the football more. I certainly remember the Colts erupting against the Giants, Alex’s team erasing my twenty point lead in the first half, and receiving a picture text from my opponent shirtless and boasting. (If, and only if, I beat Alex this season you will see exactly what I had to go through that night.) I went into the Steelers and Titans matchup needing Antonio Brown to gain less than one-hundred yards and stay out of the end zone. Brown’s final catch of the game, with only 9:07 remaining in the game, was a twelve yard touchdown reception. Including that catch, Mr. Brown finished the game with ninety-one yards. The story does not end there, as I will face Drew Brees and Justin Forsett on Monday Night Football in Week Twelve. If I have any hopes of a playoff berth, that matchup will most likely be a must win for me. Stop ranting, there are nine other teams to discuss.

By my estimation, four playoff spots are essentially filled, two members of ShowTime 3.o have essentially been eliminated, and the playoffs have essentially started for the remaining four. Paul, Lucas, Cribb, and I have two weeks to fill two vacant spots in this year’s playoffs.

PLAYOFFS?!?!?!?!?!? The weather is cold, anticipation is high, weekly stress is unbearable, and the stakes seem to outweigh the seven feet of snow Buffalo received this week. With all of that in mind, I plan to create a snapshot of each team in ShowTime 3.0. I will display their current standing, the two opponents each will face before the playoffs begin, and how I see this season ending. I normally get off track quickly while creating these posts, so other facts, opinions, and pure rants will most likely occur before this post is over. After all, I worked eight hours today, drove two additional hours, and my beautiful wife should be landing in San Juan any minute with her family. I am cold, tired, desperate, and obviously whiny so expect some rants. I have added a few rants, in case you do not like mine.

1. Deavers (8-3) – Joe and C.W. – Deavers has defined being in the right place at the right time this season. He sits atop a very competitive fantasy football league with the seventh highest point total. This fact was very frustrating to me, until I just factored in some mathematics. Surprisingly, Deavers is averaging a fraction under seventy-three points per game. In this league, seventy-three points can result in a win many weeks. In Week Eleven, only three teams performed beyond that mark. In Week Ten, eight surpassed that point total (one of the two that did not was Deavers, and he won). Five fared better than seventy-three points in Week Nine (Deavers scored 106). You have to be fortunate in fantasy football, and clearly Deavers has; however, scoring an average of seventy-three points per week will allow you to be competitive in most weeks. Now, I am curious. I told you this could become an unorganized rant. When I remove Deavers’ two best scores and two worst scores, he still averages 71.84. After looking more at specifics, and less at one point total of 802.69, I think it is clear that Deavers has a very consistent team and consistency is very important in a game decided by numbers. Deavers’ team has been performing better lately, and appears to have favorable matchups in the next two weeks. He will be a tough, consistent opponent for Joe and myself.

2. Alex (7-4) – Zach and Paul – Alex leads the league in scoring by nearly forty-three points. To compare to Deavers, Alex averages just over eighty-six points per week. He has surpassed Deavers’ average of seventy-three in all but two weeks. Alex also has a loss, when he scored over one-hundred points; Cribb beat Alex 121.79-100.45. When I do the same calculation, removing the two best and two worst scores, Alex’s average rises above eighty-seven points per game. In fact, Alex has only scored over one-hundred points twice. Including those two weeks, Alex has surpassed ninety points six times in eleven weeks. If you have read my previous fourteen posts, you know what I’m about to say even if you are bad at math. Alex has the best team in ShowTime 3.0 led by Andrew Luck and Jordy Nelson. I have said it since the draft, and I do not feel any differently with the playoffs on the horizon. Alex will be a tough matchup for Zach, Paul, and anyone that comes across him in weeks to come.

3. Joe (7-4) – Deavers and Mikey – Joe is second in points scored and third in the standings. This scenario makes perfect sense also. Like Alex, Joe also has a loss when he scored more than one-hundred points. Zach scored 118.10 that week, in his only win so far this season. I would call that loss unlucky. These calculations are taking more time than I was planning to spend and none are really needed to understand why Joe has had success. The lowest score produced by Joe this season was 63.20. Without looking, I would guess that fact leads the league in that stat. Again, very consistent, Joe has earned his spot near the top of the standings. Marshawn Lynch and Antonio Brown have led Joe thus far. I expect some decline in production from those two, but I also expect a little more from Dez Bryant down the stretch. If a member of ShowTime 3.0 wants to beat Joe, they should expect to need eighty points to do so. Joe has only exceeded that amount four times this season.

4. Tov (7-4) – C.W. and Lucas – Tov will play a large role in who makes the playoffs and who will not. Lucas and I both have earned five wins and desperately want and need two more. Back to Tov, and I want to word this section of the post very nicely because I cannot afford Fantasy Karma this weekend. I will be blunt and truthful. Tov won a matchup this season with 39.94 points. He traded Rob Gronkowski for Adrian Peterson, a few days before Peterson was put on the Exempt/Commissioner’s Permission List, in a gamble to improve a weak position on his team at the time. After that trade, he traded for Julius Thomas. Then, he traded away Julius Thomas. His current tight end is Mychal Rivera. There is not much consistent about any of that, except that Tov has been active. Tov has surpassed ninety points only once, and has won a matchup with a total of 39.94 points. Oh, I already mentioned that fact. When I calculate both averages for Tov’s team, both round to seventy points. I would define that as consistently inconsistent. After all, his opponents are averaging just over sixty-eight points. According to the averages, and the fact he won a week with less than forty points, Tov should be 11-0. The current four seed should feel as if he has been robbed.

This was apparently the last time I saved before my palm hit the mouse pad and at least an hour of work was lost. Kids, listen to your teachers and save your work regularly. I was in the zone last night and cannot promise tonight will produce an equivalent post, but here I go. I am skipping to Mikey and Zach, as I type on my iPad. Again, EFF YOU LENOVO THINKPAD L430!

9. Mikey (4-7) – Lucas and Joe – Mikey could also be 5-6 had he played a defense in Week Ten, when he lost by 0.97 points, against Deavers. I eliminated Mikey earlier in this post because he is one game, and 52.47 points, behind the 5-6 teams. If he gets to six wins anything is possible, but Mikey simply needs a lot of help. I just found a fun fact that I did not see last night, sorry Mikey. Mikey lost to Deavers twice this season by a combined 1.83 points. I won’t make you compute 1.83-0.97. In Week Two Deavers won by 0.86, brutal. Crunching the numbers here is pretty simple. When Mikey scores more than eighty-two points, he is 4-0. Obviously 0-7 otherwise. If Mikey can beat Lucas this weekend, and get some help, every game in the NFL will likely be relevant for our league in Week Thirteen. I’m stressing again!

My iPad is saving automatically. Thanks again, laptop!

10. Zach (1-10) – Alex and Cribb – I have sent and received multiple text messages this season that simply read “poor Zach”. This year has been brutal for our competitive, yet lovable loser. You see, Zach is a fan of the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Cubs. He had seen his fair share of brutal! The fact that his opponents have outscored him by 160.75 points, and he has outscored the current fourth and fifth seed teams, is beyond unlucky. Zach’s opponents would surpass Alex as our league leading scorer. Having said that, Zach will be a tough foe for Alex and Cribb. Believe it or not, Zach owns Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, and will add Josh Gordon to his starting lineup this weekend.

I will now breakdown the teams in the race and include total points, our tiebreaker.

5. Paul (6-5; 745.68 total points) – Cribb and Alex – Paul is averaging 67.79 points per game, which is worst in the league. In fact, he has only scored more than eighty points twice this season. Luckily for Paul, his opponents are averaging 69.79. If you take away those two games over eighty points, his average falls to 60.97. I cannot understand how Paul won four games in the nine games he did not score eighty points, and averaged just 60.97 points. I am being really critical of Paul’s fortunate season, but J.J. Watt has more points than all but three of his players. The only players on his team with more points than Watt are Philip Rivers, Demaryius Thomas, and Golden Tate. Yes, his defenses and kicker have scored less than Watt also. Paul will lose all tiebreakers in the race, as he trails the other three teams by at least 130.2 points. I believe that he also plays the toughest remaining schedule, as Alex and Cribb are the best two teams in the league right now in my opinion. Having said all of that, if Paul can gain just one more win he will likely clinch a playoff berth.

6. Lucas (5-6; 883.12 total points) – Mikey and Tov – Lucas has had to earn his wins this season. The lowest point total he has in a winning weekend is 80.28. Unlike Mikey, he is not undefeated once he gets to that point total however, as Alex beat him 95.19-86.89 in Week Two. Lucas has been very consistent, only accumulating less than seventy-four points twice this season. His success has come from his core of Peyton Manning, Jeremy Maclin, and Randall Cobb. On the other hand, he is relying on Steven Jackson, Trent Richardson, and Terrance West in his backfield. I also see a lot of bad matchups in Week Thirteen. Ahmad Bradshaw’s injury may have been just what the doctor ordered for Lucas, with Richardson likely getting more touches going forward. His core and consistency should keep Lucas a strong contender over these final two weeks.

7. Cribb (5-6; 877.60 total points) – Paul and Zach – I said it earlier and I will say it again. Pay attention kids! When you use pronouns, like it, be specific because no one knows what “it” is in that first sentence. I believe Cribb has the second best team in the league at this very second, even though Jamaal Charles is off to a slow start. Charles, Arian Foster (if healthy), Brandon Marahall and T.Y. Hilton is probably the best combination of position players in the league. Cribb’s inconsistency is at Quarterback (Cutler and Roethlisberger). Cribb is 3-3 when he scores in the seventies. 0-2 when he has performed below seventy points, and 2-1 when he scores above eighty. He has surpassed one-hundred points twice, both victories against Alex. Alex scored more than ninety-three points in both of those losses. I have apologized for my two victories against Cribb in previous posts. This team should be at least 6-5, at the very least.

8. C.W. (5-6; 875.88 total points) – Tov and Deavers – I have rambled enough about myself over the past fourteen posts. I quickly want to say, if we redrafted today two of the top five overall picks, the first drafted Tight End, and probably the fifth or sixth Quarterback selected in that draft reside on my team (Murray, Forte, Gronk, and Brady). My biggest liability this season as been a one armed juggling act at Wide Receiver. I have owned Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Josh Gordon, Kendall Wright, Torrey Smith, Rueben Randle, Kendall Wright again, Brandon Lafell, Allen Robinson, Marques Colston, and Anquan Boldin this season. With all of that, I have only scored under eighty-one points three times, yet I have little confidence in regards to clinching one of the last two spots.

Based on those two thousand and sixty-four words, allow me to quickly make my Week Twelve ShowTime 3.0 picks (27-28 overall). At one point, I was 12-3 with ShowTime picks, damn!

C.W., Lucas, Cribb, Joe, and Zach are winners this week, by my estimation. I have been 1-4 most of the past few weeks. I feel most confident about Cribb winning out of those picks. Especially since Charles is going to score a touchdown in five, four, three, two, one…wrong again!

NFL (100-60-1)

Chiefs
Browns
Eagles
Patriots
Packers
Colts
Bengals
Bears
Seahawks
Chargers
Broncos
49ers
Cowboys
Bills
Ravens

When will this “post” end? Wake up kids! See what I did there? “When will this end”, would have been confusing and incomplete. You need to be specific and complete, remember. I got curious again. With all of these averages, I want to calculate the average winning score so far this season. Hold, please, my wife is messaging me from San Juan… Sorry, that average is 84.98, a bit higher than I expected. If we have learned anything from this post of numbers, averages and results have little correlation. A team truly needs a great core of players, a better schedule within the league, favorable matchups, and a lot of things to bounce his or her way. The fantasy season is fun, brutal, and extremely stressful. Buckle up boys, the fun filled weeks of brutal stress is just beginning. THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

EFF YOU LENOVO THINKPAD L430

I have spent the last four hours of my life constructing a post. About five minutes ago, my palm hit the mouse pad portion of the laptop and deleted half of my post. I will try to recreate the post tomorrow evening while watching football. Give me Kansas City tomorrow and I will post something for Week Twelve tomorrow, if I have it in me again. In a word, pissed!

This Is What I Know – Week Eleven

With only three weeks remaining in our regular season, the standings are as follows.

Standings

Six teams will make the playoffs and four will not.  With points serving as a tiebreaker, The Lannister Men appear to have a grip on any cross-league ties.  Unfortunately for Zach and Mikey, the only two Stark Men to reach 740 points this season, the race to the playoffs seems to be an eight man race.  The fact that Zach and Mikey place first and second in points for their division, but combine for a total of four wins blows my mind.  Every man in this league has games they think they should have won and some games they know they should have lost.  Schedules, bye weeks, injuries, good luck, bad luck, and incorrect assumptions on draft night all play a factor over the season.  For example, my previous matchup against Joe, in Week Four, was the night Tom Brady gave me negative points on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs.  I lost by less than four points.  Most experts advised fantasy players to look else ware at the Quarterback position after that night, and who could blame them.  Tom Brady was struggling but since that night has been a top five Quarterback.  Week Four is a week I believe I should have won!  The following week, I replaced Tom Brady with Ben Roethlisberger.  Brady outscored the Pittsburgh Quarterback by eight points.  That very same week, Percy Harvin scored three touchdowns against me, but all three were called back due to penalty.  I should have lost, as I beat Cribb by less than six points.  After two straight, heartbreaking, division losses, I unexpectedly beat Cribb again this past week.  Arizona’s Defense and Mychal Rivera scored three total touchdowns in a matter of minutes this time around.  Cribb, just like my post after Week Four, I apologize.  We all have these stories that play themselves out over the course of a season.

For the eight in the race, the next three weeks are the only ones that matter.  Week Fourteen is a new season.

For Zach and Mikey, the next three weeks should be the only ones that matter.  Take pride in helping to eliminate competitors, especially since I have already played you both!

Zach, congratulations on your win.  I know you have continued to give full effort during your frustrating season, good work.

Since it worked last week, I wish you all the worst of luck in Week Eleven.

NFL (92-54-1)

Dolphins
Bears
Browns
Seahawks
Panthers
Saints
Redskins
Broncos
49ers
Chargers
Packers
Cardinals
Patriots
Steelers

ShowTime 3.0 (26-24)

I am creating this post before waivers process, so I will provide a few facts and then quickly make my picks tomorrow morning.

cw joe

C.W. vs. Joe – The Dallas Cowboys are on a bye. Joe is without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. C.W. is without DeMarco Murray. Cam Newton replaces Tony Romo in Joe’s lineup and did not look like Cam Newton last night on Monday Night Football. C.W. traded for Bishop Sankey last night and will have to choose between him and an injured Lamar Miller. These teams will not be at full strength and I expect a close matchup. Me, better matchups and a new choice between Sankey and Jonathan Stewart.

mikey alex

Mikey vs. Alex – Mikey has three players on a bye, while Alex has zero. Alex is currently the number one seed and at full strength. On Tuesday Night at nine o’clock, Alex is projected to win by more than 39 points. Mikey did not pick up a defense in Week Ten, so I feel he may not pick up a kicker in Week Eleven. This matchup seems lopsided, but I will reevaluate before posting. Alex, because he is the best team in the league right now.

cribb tov

Cribb vs. Tov – Cribb is without Jason Witten and Percy Harvin, due to bye weeks. Flacco, Forsett, and Torrey Smith, of the Ravens, are on a bye for Tov. Tov also owns the Ravens Defense. Cribb owns Arian Foster, currently not in his starting lineup and expected to play, who was injured before his bye. Tov traded for Mychal Rivera, who helped C.W. beat Cribb last week. I think a lot will change in this matchup before Sunday. Cribb, because his team is better than his 4-6 record and Foster is now in his lineup.

deavers luca

Deavers vs. Lucas – The only bye week significance in this matchup requires Deavers to pick up a kicker and IDP this week. Peyton Manning has a plus matchup against the Rams, for Lucas. Matthew Stafford has a bad matchup against the Cardinals, for Deavers. Jimmy Graham may make up the difference for Deavers, in a plus matchup against the Bengals. Lucas is projected to win by more that 14 points, but Deavers will close that gap by completing his lineup. I also feel Stafford is under projected. This matchup will be tight throughout the weekend and very important in the playoff chase. Lucas, because of Manning, Cobb, and Maclin.

paul zach

Paul vs. Zach – Zach’s team is confident and healthy, with Calvin Johnson returning from injury. There are no bye week implications. Zach has two open roster spots and is projected to win by more than 16 points. At 9:31 PM on Tuesday Night, Zach will win and outscore Paul in all ten starting positions. That is my slam dunk prediction and THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

*All fantasy projections are subject to change and I cannot be held responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have an editor or research team.

This Is What I Know – Week Ten

Happy Sunday! I am sorry that I missed my normal post time, as this week at work was a real mess.  The end of the month, in accounting, can be as frustrating as fantasy football.  Please explain to me how the current number one seed, in our league, wins a matchup 39.94 to 22.31. And, please explain to me how 40 points would have won eight teams a matchup last week while Alex destroyed me with nearly 50 points on Monday Night Football.  As frustrating as these facts are, the answers are simple.  Tov was voted “worst team” on draft night, which always predicts a championship contender.  And, Alex was born to be a good friend to all of us, except when he has a clear advantage in anything.  In these cases, our friend becomes an arrogant, pompous, heartless, asshole.

Note to Alex:  I thought all of 15 seconds for a synonym for asshole, but simply could not come up with anything.  All jokes aside, you are a great friend, great fantasy competitor, and I wish you the best of (Andrew) Luck the rest of the season.  I have a particular picture of you that I hope and pray I can share with the World, when I beat you in the playoffs.

Note to Tov:  We all remember you uttering “fantasy isn’t fun anymore” on draft night.  I hope it was fun last week when you became 7-2 scoring less than 40 points and ruining my Slam Dunk prediction.  Fantasy isn’t fun anymore!

If you didn’t read last week, I hated Tov’s team and predicted JJ Watt would outscore all of Tov’s position players.  Justin Forsett was not in his lineup when I made the prediction, but that fact would not have changed my prediction, as I try to be bold.  Obviously, too bold.  Justin Forsett outscored JJ Watt by 0.5 points, the exact total he earned for his solo tackle.

Slam Dunk Prediction

Andy Dalton will throw for 86 yards and 3 interceptions, call it a hunch.  I also have a educated guess that Ben Roethlisberger will throw less than 6 touchdowns, after doing so for two straight weeks.  I also believe starting Romo is a bad idea for the Cowboys.  I would prefer a loss to the Jaguars, rather than losing Romo for the season.  So you want something bold?  I will take the Oakland Raiders to cover the spread against the Denver Broncos.  This is Sunday and the NFL, Oakland is at home, I have only gotten one of these right, so give me Oakland losing by less than twelve.

Kickoff is approaching, so I’m going to hurry the predictions along.

NFL (82-51-1)

Bengals X
Cowboys
Bills
Lions
49ers – I don’t like this pick, but I picked them to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Ravens
Steelers
Falcons
Broncos 34-24
Cardinals
Seahawks
Packers
Eagles

ShowTime (24-21)

No time for a write up of each game this week, so I will provide one fact that supports my pick. Also to differentiate from previous posts, I will wish all of my league mates the worst luck possible!

C.W. Over Cribb – DeMarco Murray is the NFL’s Leading Rusher. The Jaguars are not good at defending the run. Romo is banged up. Media is questioning why Murray has not touched the ball 20 plus times in recent weeks. DeMarco needs to have a big day!

Mikey over Deavers – Deavers’ wide receivers played Thursday Night. AJ Green and Mohamed Sanu scored 3.15 fantasy points. Deavers is still projected to win, as Mikey chose not to start a defense, but I don’t care.

Joe over Zach – I started to pick Zach as my Slam Dunk without looking at his team. I knew Calvin Johnson was back and that he has Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately for Zach, he is starting Chris Johnson and Bryce Brown at running back.

Tov over Alex – Last week Jeremy Hill scored 21.25 fantasy points against me. This week Jeremy Hill scored 1.15 fantasy points against Tov. Tov continues to receive the luck, granted to the team voted as the worst, as Andrew Luck is on a bye this week.

Lucas over Paul – In my opinion, Lucas has the advantage at nine of our ten starting positions. The largest of these advantages resides at the Quarterback position. Peyton Manning normally rebounds after bad games and he easily may outscore Alex Smith, Paul’s QB, by 10 fantasy points.

THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

*I am not responsible for bad predictions or typos, as I do not have a research or editing team.