This Is What I Know – Week Twelve

My fifteenth post comes to you from a depressed state of mind. Three out of the past four Monday nights, I have sat in front of my television and watched my playoff hopes become smaller and smaller. You remember my post after the Redskins beat the Cowboys and the unwillingness of the Cowboys to run the football more. I certainly remember the Colts erupting against the Giants, Alex’s team erasing my twenty point lead in the first half, and receiving a picture text from my opponent shirtless and boasting. (If, and only if, I beat Alex this season you will see exactly what I had to go through that night.) I went into the Steelers and Titans matchup needing Antonio Brown to gain less than one-hundred yards and stay out of the end zone. Brown’s final catch of the game, with only 9:07 remaining in the game, was a twelve yard touchdown reception. Including that catch, Mr. Brown finished the game with ninety-one yards. The story does not end there, as I will face Drew Brees and Justin Forsett on Monday Night Football in Week Twelve. If I have any hopes of a playoff berth, that matchup will most likely be a must win for me. Stop ranting, there are nine other teams to discuss.

By my estimation, four playoff spots are essentially filled, two members of ShowTime 3.o have essentially been eliminated, and the playoffs have essentially started for the remaining four. Paul, Lucas, Cribb, and I have two weeks to fill two vacant spots in this year’s playoffs.

PLAYOFFS?!?!?!?!?!? The weather is cold, anticipation is high, weekly stress is unbearable, and the stakes seem to outweigh the seven feet of snow Buffalo received this week. With all of that in mind, I plan to create a snapshot of each team in ShowTime 3.0. I will display their current standing, the two opponents each will face before the playoffs begin, and how I see this season ending. I normally get off track quickly while creating these posts, so other facts, opinions, and pure rants will most likely occur before this post is over. After all, I worked eight hours today, drove two additional hours, and my beautiful wife should be landing in San Juan any minute with her family. I am cold, tired, desperate, and obviously whiny so expect some rants. I have added a few rants, in case you do not like mine.

1. Deavers (8-3) – Joe and C.W. – Deavers has defined being in the right place at the right time this season. He sits atop a very competitive fantasy football league with the seventh highest point total. This fact was very frustrating to me, until I just factored in some mathematics. Surprisingly, Deavers is averaging a fraction under seventy-three points per game. In this league, seventy-three points can result in a win many weeks. In Week Eleven, only three teams performed beyond that mark. In Week Ten, eight surpassed that point total (one of the two that did not was Deavers, and he won). Five fared better than seventy-three points in Week Nine (Deavers scored 106). You have to be fortunate in fantasy football, and clearly Deavers has; however, scoring an average of seventy-three points per week will allow you to be competitive in most weeks. Now, I am curious. I told you this could become an unorganized rant. When I remove Deavers’ two best scores and two worst scores, he still averages 71.84. After looking more at specifics, and less at one point total of 802.69, I think it is clear that Deavers has a very consistent team and consistency is very important in a game decided by numbers. Deavers’ team has been performing better lately, and appears to have favorable matchups in the next two weeks. He will be a tough, consistent opponent for Joe and myself.

2. Alex (7-4) – Zach and Paul – Alex leads the league in scoring by nearly forty-three points. To compare to Deavers, Alex averages just over eighty-six points per week. He has surpassed Deavers’ average of seventy-three in all but two weeks. Alex also has a loss, when he scored over one-hundred points; Cribb beat Alex 121.79-100.45. When I do the same calculation, removing the two best and two worst scores, Alex’s average rises above eighty-seven points per game. In fact, Alex has only scored over one-hundred points twice. Including those two weeks, Alex has surpassed ninety points six times in eleven weeks. If you have read my previous fourteen posts, you know what I’m about to say even if you are bad at math. Alex has the best team in ShowTime 3.0 led by Andrew Luck and Jordy Nelson. I have said it since the draft, and I do not feel any differently with the playoffs on the horizon. Alex will be a tough matchup for Zach, Paul, and anyone that comes across him in weeks to come.

3. Joe (7-4) – Deavers and Mikey – Joe is second in points scored and third in the standings. This scenario makes perfect sense also. Like Alex, Joe also has a loss when he scored more than one-hundred points. Zach scored 118.10 that week, in his only win so far this season. I would call that loss unlucky. These calculations are taking more time than I was planning to spend and none are really needed to understand why Joe has had success. The lowest score produced by Joe this season was 63.20. Without looking, I would guess that fact leads the league in that stat. Again, very consistent, Joe has earned his spot near the top of the standings. Marshawn Lynch and Antonio Brown have led Joe thus far. I expect some decline in production from those two, but I also expect a little more from Dez Bryant down the stretch. If a member of ShowTime 3.0 wants to beat Joe, they should expect to need eighty points to do so. Joe has only exceeded that amount four times this season.

4. Tov (7-4) – C.W. and Lucas – Tov will play a large role in who makes the playoffs and who will not. Lucas and I both have earned five wins and desperately want and need two more. Back to Tov, and I want to word this section of the post very nicely because I cannot afford Fantasy Karma this weekend. I will be blunt and truthful. Tov won a matchup this season with 39.94 points. He traded Rob Gronkowski for Adrian Peterson, a few days before Peterson was put on the Exempt/Commissioner’s Permission List, in a gamble to improve a weak position on his team at the time. After that trade, he traded for Julius Thomas. Then, he traded away Julius Thomas. His current tight end is Mychal Rivera. There is not much consistent about any of that, except that Tov has been active. Tov has surpassed ninety points only once, and has won a matchup with a total of 39.94 points. Oh, I already mentioned that fact. When I calculate both averages for Tov’s team, both round to seventy points. I would define that as consistently inconsistent. After all, his opponents are averaging just over sixty-eight points. According to the averages, and the fact he won a week with less than forty points, Tov should be 11-0. The current four seed should feel as if he has been robbed.

This was apparently the last time I saved before my palm hit the mouse pad and at least an hour of work was lost. Kids, listen to your teachers and save your work regularly. I was in the zone last night and cannot promise tonight will produce an equivalent post, but here I go. I am skipping to Mikey and Zach, as I type on my iPad. Again, EFF YOU LENOVO THINKPAD L430!

9. Mikey (4-7) – Lucas and Joe – Mikey could also be 5-6 had he played a defense in Week Ten, when he lost by 0.97 points, against Deavers. I eliminated Mikey earlier in this post because he is one game, and 52.47 points, behind the 5-6 teams. If he gets to six wins anything is possible, but Mikey simply needs a lot of help. I just found a fun fact that I did not see last night, sorry Mikey. Mikey lost to Deavers twice this season by a combined 1.83 points. I won’t make you compute 1.83-0.97. In Week Two Deavers won by 0.86, brutal. Crunching the numbers here is pretty simple. When Mikey scores more than eighty-two points, he is 4-0. Obviously 0-7 otherwise. If Mikey can beat Lucas this weekend, and get some help, every game in the NFL will likely be relevant for our league in Week Thirteen. I’m stressing again!

My iPad is saving automatically. Thanks again, laptop!

10. Zach (1-10) – Alex and Cribb – I have sent and received multiple text messages this season that simply read “poor Zach”. This year has been brutal for our competitive, yet lovable loser. You see, Zach is a fan of the Buffalo Bills and Chicago Cubs. He had seen his fair share of brutal! The fact that his opponents have outscored him by 160.75 points, and he has outscored the current fourth and fifth seed teams, is beyond unlucky. Zach’s opponents would surpass Alex as our league leading scorer. Having said that, Zach will be a tough foe for Alex and Cribb. Believe it or not, Zach owns Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, and will add Josh Gordon to his starting lineup this weekend.

I will now breakdown the teams in the race and include total points, our tiebreaker.

5. Paul (6-5; 745.68 total points) – Cribb and Alex – Paul is averaging 67.79 points per game, which is worst in the league. In fact, he has only scored more than eighty points twice this season. Luckily for Paul, his opponents are averaging 69.79. If you take away those two games over eighty points, his average falls to 60.97. I cannot understand how Paul won four games in the nine games he did not score eighty points, and averaged just 60.97 points. I am being really critical of Paul’s fortunate season, but J.J. Watt has more points than all but three of his players. The only players on his team with more points than Watt are Philip Rivers, Demaryius Thomas, and Golden Tate. Yes, his defenses and kicker have scored less than Watt also. Paul will lose all tiebreakers in the race, as he trails the other three teams by at least 130.2 points. I believe that he also plays the toughest remaining schedule, as Alex and Cribb are the best two teams in the league right now in my opinion. Having said all of that, if Paul can gain just one more win he will likely clinch a playoff berth.

6. Lucas (5-6; 883.12 total points) – Mikey and Tov – Lucas has had to earn his wins this season. The lowest point total he has in a winning weekend is 80.28. Unlike Mikey, he is not undefeated once he gets to that point total however, as Alex beat him 95.19-86.89 in Week Two. Lucas has been very consistent, only accumulating less than seventy-four points twice this season. His success has come from his core of Peyton Manning, Jeremy Maclin, and Randall Cobb. On the other hand, he is relying on Steven Jackson, Trent Richardson, and Terrance West in his backfield. I also see a lot of bad matchups in Week Thirteen. Ahmad Bradshaw’s injury may have been just what the doctor ordered for Lucas, with Richardson likely getting more touches going forward. His core and consistency should keep Lucas a strong contender over these final two weeks.

7. Cribb (5-6; 877.60 total points) – Paul and Zach – I said it earlier and I will say it again. Pay attention kids! When you use pronouns, like it, be specific because no one knows what “it” is in that first sentence. I believe Cribb has the second best team in the league at this very second, even though Jamaal Charles is off to a slow start. Charles, Arian Foster (if healthy), Brandon Marahall and T.Y. Hilton is probably the best combination of position players in the league. Cribb’s inconsistency is at Quarterback (Cutler and Roethlisberger). Cribb is 3-3 when he scores in the seventies. 0-2 when he has performed below seventy points, and 2-1 when he scores above eighty. He has surpassed one-hundred points twice, both victories against Alex. Alex scored more than ninety-three points in both of those losses. I have apologized for my two victories against Cribb in previous posts. This team should be at least 6-5, at the very least.

8. C.W. (5-6; 875.88 total points) – Tov and Deavers – I have rambled enough about myself over the past fourteen posts. I quickly want to say, if we redrafted today two of the top five overall picks, the first drafted Tight End, and probably the fifth or sixth Quarterback selected in that draft reside on my team (Murray, Forte, Gronk, and Brady). My biggest liability this season as been a one armed juggling act at Wide Receiver. I have owned Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Josh Gordon, Kendall Wright, Torrey Smith, Rueben Randle, Kendall Wright again, Brandon Lafell, Allen Robinson, Marques Colston, and Anquan Boldin this season. With all of that, I have only scored under eighty-one points three times, yet I have little confidence in regards to clinching one of the last two spots.

Based on those two thousand and sixty-four words, allow me to quickly make my Week Twelve ShowTime 3.0 picks (27-28 overall). At one point, I was 12-3 with ShowTime picks, damn!

C.W., Lucas, Cribb, Joe, and Zach are winners this week, by my estimation. I have been 1-4 most of the past few weeks. I feel most confident about Cribb winning out of those picks. Especially since Charles is going to score a touchdown in five, four, three, two, one…wrong again!

NFL (100-60-1)

Chiefs
Browns
Eagles
Patriots
Packers
Colts
Bengals
Bears
Seahawks
Chargers
Broncos
49ers
Cowboys
Bills
Ravens

When will this “post” end? Wake up kids! See what I did there? “When will this end”, would have been confusing and incomplete. You need to be specific and complete, remember. I got curious again. With all of these averages, I want to calculate the average winning score so far this season. Hold, please, my wife is messaging me from San Juan… Sorry, that average is 84.98, a bit higher than I expected. If we have learned anything from this post of numbers, averages and results have little correlation. A team truly needs a great core of players, a better schedule within the league, favorable matchups, and a lot of things to bounce his or her way. The fantasy season is fun, brutal, and extremely stressful. Buckle up boys, the fun filled weeks of brutal stress is just beginning. THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

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