Monthly Archives: December 2014

This Is What I Know – Championship Week

On August 7, just a little over four months ago, ten members of Showtime 3.0 were excited for a new fantasy season to begin. I began this journey of weekly posts by telling my readers what I knew about the first round of our upcoming draft. Like all things that are good, the fantasy season must come to an end. Ten has become two, and that season will end this weekend. The winner between Alex and Cribb will have a very Merry beginning of their 2014 Christmas. In a year that I incorrectly “knew” a lot of things, allow me to be smug for just a moment. I have been telling my readers for some time that Alex and Cribb were the best two teams in the league. Without further ado, as the old adage goes, I will preview this Championship matchup.

Cribb (6) vs. Alex (1)

Championship

Fact One – If this league’s structure followed that of the NFL, these two teams would have played last weekend and Cribb would have won 82.60 – 69.84. In this scenario, Deavers would be facing Cribb this weekend.

Fact Two – In the regular season Alex averaged 86.72 points per week. Since the playoffs started, Alex has only averaged 67.56 points over the past two weeks. To compare, Cribb averaged 80.93 points during the regular season. His playoff average has climbed to 104.81 points per game. This difference was largely influenced by his 127.02 point showing in Week Fourteen, but clearly shows his team has outscored Alex’s over the past two weeks.

Fact Three – This matchup will be the third between Alex and Cribb this season. Cribb prevailed in each of the previous meetings, averaging 114.41 points in those two games. Alex did not lose quietly in either of those matchups, as he averaged 96.96 points. In fact, Alex was the third highest scorer, in the league, each of the weekends he faced Cribb. Had one of those outcomes gone the other way, I would have likely made the playoffs, lost to Joe, Joe would have beaten Tov, and Alex would be facing Joe this weekend.

The fact that Alex lost those two weeks had no bearing on his outcome, as he won the regular season championship. I extended fact three for two reasons. The first reason was simply to show how high scoring and competitive these two have played against each other this season. Reason number two was another chance to allow my readers to visualize how competitive and unfair this league, and fantasy football as a whole, can be. A rule change in fact one would allow Deavers to make the championship. If the third highest score, earned a win, in Week Four or Week Eight, Joe would have made the championship.

I plan to wrap up the season with an additional post soon. In that post, I may attempt to prove that Zach could be competing for this championship, instead of finishing 1-12.  If, ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we would all have a Merry Christmas!

Fact Four – In Week Four and Week Eight, Cribb started Brandon Marshall (of the Bears) and Ahmad Bradshaw. Since then, both of these players sustained injuries and currently reside on the Injured Reserve List. Odell Beckham Jr. and Frank Gore (also currently injured) replace those key contributors in Cribb’s lineup.

Fact Five – Alex is currently projected to win this matchup 89.08 – 86.20. Nearly sixteen of Alex’s projected points will have to wait until Monday Night Football, when Jeremy Hill and Emmanuel Sanders take the field. Cribb has no players participating on Monday Night.

Why I think Alex will win – I have said Alex owns the best fantasy football team in our league since our draft in August. The task of beating a team three times in one season is very difficult. In Week Four, Larry Donnell scored three touchdowns for Cribb. Alex was also without Emmanuel Sanders and Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill, due to bye week scheduling, during the Week Four matchup. Cribb has multiple injury concerns entering this weekend. I expect both of these teams to trend back toward their regular season averages, as Alex has underperformed and Cribb has significantly exceeded his regular season average in recent weeks.

Why I think Cribb will win – Cribb is in Alex’s head, as Alex does not lose well. Cribb’s team is producing at a much higher level, as he has outscored Alex each of the past three weeks. If both are healthy and play, Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles make up the best running back duo in Showtime 3.0. Alex’s best running back, McCoy, plays a surprisingly great rush defense in Washington. The last time McCoy faced the Redskins, he rushed nineteen times for twenty-two yards and earned 0.10 points. The fact that the Eagles scored three rushing touchdowns, none by McCoy, last week against the Cowboys has to be concerning for Alex.

**Editing Note –  How did I miss this key fact?  Alex, himself, pointed out a possible advantage that Cribb has this week.  Alex will start Andrew Luck.  Cribb will start TY Hilton, Andrew Luck’s number one receiver.  Receiving yards and receiving touchdowns are worth more points than passing yards and passing touchdowns, in this league.  Who Luck completes passes to may be the number one factor surrounding this championship.

I promised the Fantasy Football Gods that I would not make matchup predictions going forward, so I will not. Looking at the starting players and their game times, I expect Alex to be playing from behind most of the day on Sunday. Monday Night Football should tell the tale and complete another season for Showtime 3.0. As for my buy-in, “Keep the change you filthy animals”.

Change

I do have a chance to win a sixteen team PPR league championship this weekend (see screenshot below for matchup, my team is on the left). This league has been around for many years and my fondest memory was beating Alex in the 2011 Championship.

Caverns

During that 2011 season I rostered Aaron Rodgers, Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Jimmy Graham, Jordy Nelson, and Aaron Hernandez.  I still remember watching Jordy Nelson catching two of Aaron Rodger’s five touchdown passes on that Christmas Night, while giving Chelsey a Tony Romo jersey on our first Christmas together.  I’m sure Alex has tried to forget that Christmas, so I will provide a link to that game log, courtesy of NFL.com.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011122500/2011/REG16/bears@packers?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A09000d5d8256bce9&tab=recap

NFL Picks

Week Sixteen
Jaguars
Redskins
Chargers
Dolphins
Ravens
Lions
Panthers
Saints
Packers
Steelers
Patriots
Rams
Cowboys
Bills
Seahawks
Broncos

Week Seventeen
Cowboys
Falcons
Ravens
Colts
Packers
Texans
Chiefs
Dolphins
Vikings
Patriots
Eagles
Steelers
Saints
Broncos
49ers
Seahawks

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year. I will log another post after the Holidays. If you have followed my posts, you already know that post will have no direction so I make no promises. In the meantime enjoy your families, last minute shopping, tangible gifts, intangible gifts, and great football. It’s the most wonderful time of the year! And, THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

**Lineups and projections can change.  I am not responsible for faulty information or typos, as I do not have a research or editing team.

This Is What I Know – Final Four

I’m glad I was eliminated before the playoffs started.  The Cowboys played well on Thursday Night Football and my weekend was stress free.  When Brandon LaFell lost a fumble on Sunday Night, the result of the play had no bearing on my mood.  I had less beer, I took a nap, and I skipped Monday Night Football to watch Breaking Bad with my wife.  Speaking of Breaking Bad, we have six episodes left and look forward to finishing the series this weekend.  Speaking of this weekend, and my wife, Chelsey has a birthday on Friday.  If you are reading this post, follow her and wish her a Happy Birthday on Twitter at @ChelseyDunn12.  She does not use Twitter very often, so she will be surprised by any tweets sent her way.

The two matchups I previewed last week had very different outcomes, which could have been predicted.  The “battle” that occurred between the “Men” of the Stark division totaled 107.07.  If there is any confusion regarding my last sentence, the two teams combined for 107.07 points.  To put that point total into perspective, Joe scored 112.55 against Cribb and lost.  That fact explains another reason I am glad I was eliminated the week before.  Think about it!  You made the six man playoffs.  You scored more points than two of the four teams could score together.  Yet, you are preparing to play for fifth place.  As I was last week, I am sure Joe is sick.  I have said from the very beginning that this league is very competitive and a lot of times unfair.  Had I made the playoffs (I missed the playoffs by 0.04 total season points, if you did not read last week.), Joe would have advanced and I would have been bitter this week instead of last week.

Cribb 127.02 – Joe 112.55

Deavers 62.64 – Paul 44.43

This week Cribb advances to play Tov and Deavers will play Alex.  I will quickly provide some facts for each of these matchups.

Cribb (6) vs. Tov (2)

CRIBB TOV 2

Fact One – Cribb outscored Tov by 33.67 points, during the regular season, and beat Tov in Week Eleven.

Fact Two – Had these two teams played last week, Cribb would have won 127.02 to 94.40.

Fact Three – Tov has been putting up his best weeks of the season over the past three weeks, averaging 115.06 per week since his loss to Cribb.

Fact Four – During that time frame, Cribb has averaged 100.52 points per week.

Fact Five – Tov will have the first and last chance to make an impact in this matchup, as only he has starting positions playing on Thursday Night (St. Louis Defense) and Monday Night (Drew Brees).

I expect a high scoring game between these two.

Alex (1) vs. Deavers (4)

ALEX DEAVERS

Fact One – Alex outscored Deavers by 195.24 points, during the regluar season, and beat Deavers in Week Five.

Fact Two – Had these two teams played last week, Alex would have won 65.28 to 62.64.

Fact Three – Deavers has not scored 70.00 points in a week since Week Nine, five weeks ago.

Fact Four – During that time frame, Alex’s lowest score that mattered was 76.01 points. (65.28 last week during his first round bye)

Fact Five – Alex will need to post a decent lead before Monday morning, as Deavers has Mark Ingram and Jimmy Graham suiting up on Monday Night Football.

Everything I mentioned points to Alex winning this matchup, but I expect him to sweat through Monday Night.

NFL Picks
Rams
Falcons
Giants
Patriots
Chiefs
Colts
Ravens
Packers
Panthers
Johnny Football
Jets
Broncos
Lions
Seahawks
Cowboys
Saints

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, HONEY! THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

**Typos and incorrect predictions are likely, as I do not have an editing team.

This Is What I Know – Divisional Semi-Finals

Fact One – I won my must win matchup against Deavers last week by 27.65 points.

Fact Two – Lucas lost his must win matchup against Tov last week by 68.11 points.

Fact Three – Cribb won his must win matchup against Zach last week by 2.14 points.

Fact Four – Cribb and I entered Monday Night Football knowing that one of us would face Joe in Week One of the fantasy playoffs, but I needed help. I needed Mike Wallace to score more than 6.2 points or Lamar Miller to score 10.1 points. I had two reasonable chances to make the 2014 ShowTime 3.0 Playoffs.

Fact Five – I missed the playoffs by four one hundredths of a point (0.04).

STANDINGS Final

I stared at my iPad screen in disbelieve. I got out of bed and pulled up Stat Tracker on my laptop. Stat Tracker said I was in!  But, in that instance I noticed TY Hilton was credited with a tackle and a forced fumble.  Stat Tracker was not accounting for the tackle at the time.  At nearly midnight, I was frantically searching different sites to confirm that Hilton should receive 2.5 points for a tackle and a forced fumble. The next morning I put into perspective exactly how one could lose by 0.04 points. A tackle is 0.50 points. An assisted tackle is work 0.25. A reception will earn you 0.10 points in ShowTime 3.0. One extra rushing yard or one more receiving yard, over the course of thirteen weeks, would have been enough for me to clinch a spot in this year’s playoffs. What could possibly be worth as little as 0.04 points? Over thirteen weeks, I missed the playoffs by less than two passing yards, or one too many Tom Brady kneels from the victory formation. In fact, the fact that TY Hilton scored the equivalent of fifty rushing or receiving yards on one “defensive” play beat me.

I found this clip of the play that earned Hilton those points. I have thrown my challenge flag and I hope that the stats personnel at yahoo.com take a close look at this play before stat corrections are released tomorrow morning. Have a look and judge for yourself, via NFL.com. (You may have to copy/paste the link below, and sorry for the thirty second ad.)

fantasy_u_challengeflag_300

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014113003/2014/REG13/redskins@colts#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap3000000436111&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

Upon further review, my very biased eyes see Coby Fleener in the process of making a solo tackle, Hilton swipes at the ball, and knocks the ball loose. This play absolutely should result in TY Hilton earning two points for forcing a fumble. While trying to understand how a tackle was credited to Hilton, I told myself that because no potion of the runner’s body touched the ground the “tackle” occurred when the ball left the runner’s hands. Even with that self explanation, I was not satisfied. I watched a few more times and I simply cannot understand how Coby Fleener was not credited with at least an assisted tackle on this play. Furthermore, on a year that I lost forty-two points on fourteen lost fumbles, how does the clip you just watched earn an offensive player 2.5 points. In one (substituted four letter) word, sick!

I titled this week’s post “Divisional Semi-Finals”, as the two matchups this week are between divisional foes. Each division had three teams fortunate enough to make the playoffs, and in Week One four of those teams will face each other for the third time this season. The other two teams, Alex and Tov, earned a bye to the second round. I am going to attempt to give five facts for each matchup.

(6) Cribb vs. (3) Joe

Fact One – This season Cribb averaged 80.93 points per game, while Joe averaged 82.25.

Fact Two – Joe beat Cribb both times they played during the regular season, both by single digits.

Fact Three – Joe is currently projected to win this matchup, 91.32 – 84.24.

Fact Four – These two teams will field five players on Thursday Night Football between the Cowboys and Bears. I expect a lot of fantasy points between those two teams.

Fact Five – Cribb will have to wait around, if he is fortunate enough to have a lead on Sunday evening, as only Joe has players participating on Sunday and Monday nights (Gostkowski and Worrilow).

CRIBB v JOE

**If a stat correction saves me, I will face Joe. Thursday Night Football will still be important as I own Murray and Forte. Sunday Night Football would become more important because I own Brady, Gronkowski, and LaFell.

5) Paul vs. 4) Deavers

Fact One – This year Paul averaged 70.27 points per game, while Deavers averaged 71.70.

Fact Two – Each of these teams earned a win against the other, during the regular season.

Fact Three – Deavers is currently projected to win this matchup, 77.31 – 69.34.

Fact Four – Each team will have four players remaining after the one o’clock games are finished on Sunday.

Fact Five – If Deavers can wake up Monday Morning with a lead, he will have to hold off Roddy White on Monday Night Football to advance.

PAUL v DEAV

NFL Picks

Cowboys
Steelers
Rams
Giants
Saints
Vikings
Ravens
Colts
Lions
Texans
Broncos
Cardinals
Seahawks
49ers
Patriots
Packers

The last two teams mentioned put on a heck of a show last Sunday, and Stat Corrections are posted on Thursday mornings. THIS IS WHAT I KNOW!

*Typos likely, as I do not have an editing team and anything fantasy football related is tough to swallow this week.